A Break from the Arctic

Discussion: After the cold we’ve gotten used to over the 4-5 weeks, this week should feel like beach weather. Especially Friday-Saturday.

We first have a weak coastal disturbance passing by today (Monday) through tomorrow (Tuesday). This should bring a cold rain to much of NJ with some areas NW of 95 seeing light wintry precip. Most of NJ (all except parts of Sussex County) are now above-freezing at the surface which is good news for roads. Overnight tonight, precip should pick up and the line of freezing might put Sussex/Warren (generally NWNJ) on the cold side for some light snow or sleet accumulation by tomorrow morning. Areas S of I-78 and SE of I-287 will likely remain cold rain. Everything should taper off by Tuesday morning with the associated upper-level shortwave passing through by Tuesday night. Expect highs today and tomorrow to max out near-40/lower-40s with overnight lows falling to 25-35 tonight (Monday night) and 20-30 Tuesday night.

From Wednesday through Saturday, we should see surface temps climb higher than Monday-Tuesday. Flow will be SW but within a departing cold air mass. So expect nights to still be colder (just below-freezing) but for daytime highs to be relatively mild (40s and 50s). Saturday looks like the mildest day with NJ likely in the immediate warm sector prior to the arriving cold front. This should put most of NJ in the 50s and possibly closer to 60 for parts of SNJ.  

The cold front should then come through Saturday night/Sunday morning which should prevent Sunday-Monday highs from escaping the low-mid 30s and send overnight lows well below-freezing. This returning cold presents a winter storm signal for Valentine’s Day.

Behind Saturday’s cold front will be a trough whose axis will determine how far N the coastal storm signal comes up the east coast. The overnight Euro run showed a snowstorm due to an amped/earlier phase of the jets and resulting more neutral trough. Today’s Euro shows more of a positive axis allowing the system to slip by to the S of NJ with maybe some S Mid-Atlantic snow. The other models are also indicating a miss to the S however all models have the players on the field should the vort phasing time perfectly (sooner and deeper like the overnight Euro). I’ll be watching for this over the next few days. If you want that system to happen, you want to see earlier phasing than what is showing now. So…far from a go at this point but lots of time for things to come onboard…or completely drop off. But yes I’m closely monitoring a potential Valentine’s Day snow event Sunday night through Monday (Feb 13-14).

In English: Expect cold rain to continue today for the lower-2/3 of NJ. NNJ/NWNJ has already seen a coating of snow and could see more wintry precipitation (snow or sleet) through tomorrow morning. NNJ/NWNJ accumulations should remain light and will likely not cross into significant territory. Perhaps a few inches when all is said and done. Tuesday should be a 40+ degree clear out day then Wednesday-Saturday looks even milder with temps in the mid-to-upper-40s maybe 50s (for SNJ)…and possibly near-60 by Saturday (SNJ). Saturday night through Monday then looks cold behind a cold front with snow possible for Valentine’s Day. Let’s check back tomorrow to see how the data further evolves.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™