A Gorgeous Fall Weekend

Discussion: The upper jet is in a split-stream pattern heading into this weekend. It should eventually even out into a single upper jet next week, first a bit zonal, but then with an axis out of the NW. This tells me that colder air should return by the end of next week. For the time being, mid-upper geopotential heights appear zonal and mundane with the split flow pattern above. This setup should produce/allow a mild this weekend and start to next week. Not hot, not warm, but mild. Highs near or just above 60 during peak afternoon hours…overnight lows down into the 30s/40s. All-in-all, a beautiful early-November fall weekend favoring outdoor interests and activities. I’m seeing an anomalous warm spike next Thursday due to a warm sector nose passing through NJ. Something like this could put parts of NJ at 70 degrees during peak afternoon solar heating. Friday would be a transitional day. But then after the low moves through, its backside flow will team with an approaching high to generate a strong northerly jet that should chill us down for Saturday into the following week, the same way we chilled down the last few days. I imagine this would put freezing, or below, overnight temperatures back on the table for many. For now, enjoy the mild stretch as we continue to head into the colder months. KABOOM season baby. And we’re due.

Friday (Nov 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. Perhaps a few locations threaten 60 given the dry air. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Nov 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Nov 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s again with the dry feel holding. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range pretty drastically…from near-freezing in NNJ elecations to mid-40s along the SNJ coast.

An early look at next week indicates the clear and milder (relative to this time of year) conditions lasting through about Tuesday. A small step down for Wednesday. Milder Thursday then colder conditions returning for next weekend. Not seeing much precipitation for the next week or so.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™