A Gorgeous Holiday Weekend (Sept 4-7)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 3, 2020 23:10

A Gorgeous Holiday Weekend (Sept 4-7)

Discussion: The upper jet should stay just to the N of NJ through this weekend and into next week before forming a meridional pattern by mid-next week. 500mb analysis indicates average heights until a ridge backs in, off the Atlantic Ocean, over the Mid-Atlantic and NE US. This should happen as the ridge backs in and meets the developing meridional trough over the central US. These dynamics could bring severe thunderstorms to the region mid-next week. For this weekend, the main lower-level player is a wide but shallow area of high pressure that should float through from W to E throughout the entire holiday weekend. We should feel the cooler and drier N/NW flow from the front-side of the high’s anti-cyclonic flow on Friday. The high should then be over NJ in the Saturday-Sunday period. That should continue to keep things dry and sunny. You might feel the very start of humidity returning Sunday but still a gorgeous day. By Monday (Labor Day) the high should be out over the Atlantic Ocean kicking in return flow (back-side of anti-cyclonic flow). This should usher in more humidity, from the S, back into play for Monday into Tuesday. By Wednesday we should be dealing with the surface product of the upper-level meridional pattern setup. Wednesday-Thursday looks stormy and rainy. Another high should then move in for next weekend but it might be positioned a little too far N for optimal NJ conditions. A N placement would mean direct return flow off the ocean (onshore flow) which could keep things cloudy and possibly slightly unsettled.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Sept 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should transition from noticeable in the morning to pleasant by afternoon. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 for most areas. Immediate SENJ/ECNJ coastal regions could hang in the 60s.

Saturday (Sept 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Sept 6) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas, maybe lower-80s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a continued pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. With that said humidity will start to trickle back in but not enough to make Sunday sticky. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from elevations to sea.

Monday (Sept 7 – Labor Day) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas, maybe lower-80s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny as humidity continues to return. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 as humidity builds back in full force.

An early look at the rest of next week indicates a warm and humid Tuesday, a warm, humid, stormy, and rainy Wednesday-Thursday, and then a cooler but slightly unsettled look for Friday heading into the weekend. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 3, 2020 23:10