A Hair of Relief (July 27-31)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 26, 2020 17:06

A Hair of Relief (July 27-31)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ through Tuesday before dipping over NJ for Wednesday-Sunday. After Sunday it should return to the N of NJ for continued hazy, hot and humid ridging. So Monday and Tuesday should be more of the same (like this weekend) but then we are in for at least a break in humidity but also possibly temperatures between Wednesday and the end of the weekend. The Bermuda high remains stubbornly parked, dealing relentless SW flow (reason for the warmth and humidity) into NJ. The only reason the Bermuda high’s flow will be temporarily disrupted between this Wednesday and Sunday is from the influence of another high over the Great Lakes providing NW flow into NJ. With that said, NWNJ should see more relief from humidity than SENJ. Areas between could be a battleground. The NW flow from the lakes high and the SW flow from the Bermuda high could create an area of convergence over NJ and aid in sparking pop-up showers and thunderstorms. It all depends on where that boundary of convergence pushes to. If it pushes all the way SE of SENJ then the entire state will capitalize on relief. If it only pushes into CNJ/SNJ then NWNJ and SENJ will be different planets of temp and humidity, measurable by dew point temperatures. The most notable feature this week will be Tuesday afternoon into evening hours. That’s when the front side of the lakes high will push an air mass of cooler and drier conditions into NJ from the NW. It is reasonable to assume linear segments of downpours and thunderstorms during this time (Tuesday PM).

Tropics Discussion: Real quick, disco is short for discussion in the nerdy weather world. I am currently watching Invest 92L in the Atlantic Ocean. This system will likely be named Isaias if no other tropical systems form before. This system is expected to graze the NE Caribbean and be steered around the W side of the Bermuda high. A wide range of possibilities are on the table as far as how close to the US east coast it will get. OBX would likely have the best chance of interaction but most current guidance keeps the system out to sea. From this range however we cannot give the US east coast a pass just yet. It will all depend on if there are upper level steering currents to force the curve out to sea quicker…or if there’s a ridge for the system to target meaning more of a W track. It’s way too soon to panic or say it will be a fish storm. For the next few days let’s just monitor knowing the wide range of possibilities on the table. The general window when Isaias would either be hitting NJ or passing by NJ out to sea would be ~August 5.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (July 27) high temperatures should easily reach into the 90s. Areas away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ have the best chance to near-100. Skies should be mostly sunny but hazy, hot and humid. Can’t rule out a small chance of isolated pop-ups. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-to-upper 70s from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (July 28) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could run to the mid-90s and NWNJ elevations might hang in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny to start with a humid feel. Thunderstorms, possibly severe, are possible during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (July 29) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a few isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should relax some, more for NNJ than SNJ. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide with a more comfortable feel.

Thursday (July 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to break 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.

Friday (July 31) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70.

An early look at the weekend indicates the more comfortably warm conditions lasting through Sunday. Highs in the 80s types stuff and so far looking dry. The heat and humidity is then expected to rebuilt for next week as we track the tropics for any possible east coast impacts. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 26, 2020 17:06