A Mild, Possibly Wet, Christmas

Jonathan Carr
By December 23, 2021 15:05

A Mild, Possibly Wet, Christmas

Discussion: A zonal upper-level pattern should fluctuate N and S of NJ over the next week or so as heights respond appropriately with transient troughs and ridges. At the surface this means the volatile conditions should continue. A few days of mild conditions, a few days of cold conditions, wash, rinse, and repeat. A few weak waves can produce light snow/rain but nothing what the snow lover is looking for. The snow pattern continues to struggle. We have our blocking and available cold (-NAO and -AO) but it looks like we loose that by the new year. The PNA remains anomalously negative most in response to the Gulf of Alaska ridging. A thread the needle system can always happen but the overall environment looks unfavorable for winter storm development. The MJO is looking to lock into Phase 7 through the first half of January, which traditionally means colder and snowier for the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US. However, the strength/persistence of the SE ridge and general above-average W Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies could keep the snow lovers starving. We’ll see. But for now, nothing even significant showing for the rest of the year. For this weekend, a warm front should make for mild, possibly wet, Christmas Day. Tonight into tomorrow (Christmas Eve) and Sunday night into Monday morning could see flurries/snow showers with little-to-no accumulation.

Friday (Dec 24 – Christmas Eve) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from N to S. Flurries, possibly snow showers, are possible in NNJ/CNJ overnight with little-to-no accumulation expected. CNJ/SNJ could see light rain.

Saturday (Dec 25 – Christmas Day) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from N to S.

Sunday (Dec 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 30s for most. Another weak snow/rain wave could push through into Monday with little-to-no accumulation.

An early look at next week indicates volatile conditions continuing. A cold start to the week, a mild mid-week, then back to cold for next weekend. No snow events are currently expected. Everyone have a Merry Christmas and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By December 23, 2021 15:05