A Mixed Bag of Conditions

Jonathan Carr
By March 20, 2022 23:05

A Mixed Bag of Conditions

Discussion: To address a few things…

1) The mobile application is currently down. I am getting away from an app-hosting company (runs hard in the red) and looking into developing my own app possibly with some of that cool weather visualization technology you might have recently seen me demonstrate. So I apologize for the mobile app downtime but for now, all forecasts, discussions, and articles will be posted to the main website located at weathernj.com (mobile friendly) and linked to from social media. There’s always KABOOM club too.

2) Everyone’s been asking me about the super mega hot-diggity-dog cake-shaking baby-making storm coming to New Jersey this week…thanks to I guess some quality click-baiting? It appears that some central and SE US weather got confused with Mid-Atlantic weather. So let’s take this from the start. It is going to be a rough afternoon/evening for tornado alley tomorrow and for parts of the SE US on Tuesday (you’ll likely hear about it on social/news). But by Wednesday, the decaying storm mass will pass through New Jersey as a routine frontal system (rain, wind, maybe some boomers). This should bleed over into Thursday with more rain likely for NJ but likely only light rain with subsided winds. I’d categorize Wednesday into Thursday as nuisance/crappy weather, not OMG SAVE YOURSELF. Ok, now let’s get back to the dynamics…

A chaotic amoeba of upper-level low pressure will float across the southern 2/3 of the US this week beneath a sea of positive heights. This is what will drive the intense storm dynamics for E Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas tomorrow and interior SE US on Tuesday as meridional short waves pump the W side of the disorganized upper low pressure. The surface low however looks to occlude from the jet Tuesday night which pulls/keeps the best dynamics W of NJ (closer to the Great Lakes). A frontal rain and wind system then disconnect and drift E towards NJ for Wednesday-Thursday. You might see a coastal low try to develop offshore from it Thursday. The weekend then looks closer to average temperature and uneventful. Not seeing any bottom-of-the-9th home runs for the 2021-2022 snow season. Spring started today on the calendar and that is probably it barring any freak job early April snow. We might still get cold behind a few fronts, especially overnight, but all lows/signals are modeled to pass overhead in the next 1-2 weeks. Nothing is modeled to dig and develop to the S/SE of NJ (where it needs to be for snow).

Monday (March 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be a little breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-40s statewide.

Tuesday (March 22) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Pretty great conditions for March honestly. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from N to S.

Wednesday (March 23) high temperatures should hold in the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be breezy out of the E/SE (gusty along the immediate coast). Overnight lows should only fall a little lower in the 40s given the onshore flow off the ~45-degree ocean. Periods of rain should continue into Thursday.

Thursday (March 24) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from N to S. Skies should remain cloudy with more rain possible but lighter than Wednesday’s. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from about 40 to 50 N to S.

Friday (March 25) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 40s for most.

An early look at the weekend indicates more temps in the 50-60 range with mixed skies. Sunday looks a little more unsettled than Saturday regarding some possible spring showers. Let’s see how it looks in a few days.

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Jonathan Carr
By March 20, 2022 23:05