A Small Taste of Relief

Discussion: Upper level analysis for this week indicates a zonal jet overhead above the bottom tip of a progressive trough for Monday-Tuesday. A ridge then builds over NJ Wednesday into the weekend. This creates two different planets of look and feel (early week vs late week). Early week (today through all of Tuesday and into Wednesday morning) will benefit from high pressure near the E lakes pushing cooler and dryer air into NJ from the N. This means lower temps and humidity with abundant sunshine…a true relief from recent conditions. The only caveat I will mention is that the coastal regions might hang onto a little bit of humidity mainly from ocean influence (warm ocean temps). We’re talking dew points in the 60s at times. Otherwise most NJ areas should see dews dip into the 50s, especially Tuesday. Then, starting Wednesday night as the ridge begins to build into the Mid-Atlantic US, temps and humidity will begin to rise. Thursday and Friday look hot and humid again and I expect that to last into the weekend. Since high pressure will be overhead Thursday and Friday, I don’t expect much rain for those days…just hotter temperatures, heat indices and uncomfortable humidity. Rain and storm chances look to return this weekend once the region destabilizes again after a few days. So, enjoy the break we’ll have today through Tuesday into Wednesday morning (great for outdoor activities and interests). Then get ready to bake again Thursday through the weekend. This week overall looks rain-free until Friday night at the earliest.

Forecast

Monday (July 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds with a less humid/more pleasant feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (July 22) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 80 (some areas staying in the 70s) with low humidity/pleasant feel. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (July 23) high temperatures should rise back to the mid-80s, maybe mid-to-upper 80s closer to I-95/NJTP. Skies should be mostly sunny with humidity starting to trickle back in, especially by evening. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from 60-68 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (July 24) high temperatures should break into the lower-90s for most NJ locations, likely closer to 80-85 along the coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (July 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 90s for most NJ locations. Even the coast could near-90 prior to any afternoon sea breeze. Skies should be mostly sunny with uncomfortable humidity. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide and possibly above 75 in some locations.

An early look at the weekend (July 26-27) indicates hot and humid conditions with the return of unsettled conditions (not a washout but at least rain and thunderstorms possible). Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC