A True Early Taste of Fall

Discussion: Despite what you might have read online, the rain and thunderstorms last night into today were associated with a typical slow moving cold front attached to a low tracking through Canada, and reinforced by weak low pressure sliding along the front today. They WERE NOT from Hurricane Larry. Larry is currently passing just E of Bermuda and the only US impacts seen from him were elevated surf/swell and rip currents along the ocean-facing ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Larry will turn to the NE and that’s that. Mindy crossed the SE US as a weak tropical disturbance and will steam straight out into the Atlantic well to the S of OBX. Nicholas is the next tropical storm to be names, and we’ll probably see that soon being the peak of hurricane season. But not yet.

Rain is slow to clear for ENJ/SENJ today (Thursday) but should end for all NJ areas by sunset. It might take some time for dew points (humidity) to drop but I promise you, it will feel noticeably fallish behind this rain. NWNJ should feel it before midnight tonight. SENJ by sunrise tomorrow morning. And then a true early taste of fall until Sunday morning.

Our NJ pattern this weekend will be dominated by high pressure. Front-side northerly anti-cyclonic flow for Friday and Friday night, high pressure overhead for Saturday and Saturday night, then a rebound moderation from back-side southernly return flow Sunday into early next week. Friday-Saturday should feature comfortably mild days and chilly nights, especially with expected dew points in the 40s/50s…again a true early taste of fall. Sunday and Sunday night a little less fallish and more late summer as dews climb with the return flow. With that said, fog is theoretically possible early Sunday AM until baking off by mid-to-late morning. I don’t any rain this weekend and possibly not until Thursday…to set up another post-frontal beautiful next weekend.

Friday (Sept 10) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a very pleasant feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most areas. Coastal regions maybe just above 60 and NNJ elevations possibly down into the 40s.

Saturday (Sept 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Maybe a few interior CNJ/SNJ locations just break 80. Skies should be mostly sunny with a continued pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Sept 12) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s. Watch out for areas of dense fog Sunday morning, especially SNJ/SENJ. Skies should be mostly sunny but with a little more humidity. Winds should light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates highs reaching into the low-80s Monday-Wednesday then back down to 70s Thursday into the weekend. Humidity should trickle in and out but not reach excessive levels. It looks like another rainy frontal system could push through Thursday and deliver another nice weekend. Let’s see how it all looks in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™