Amazing Start becomes Meh

Discussion: The upper-levels should stay in a positive anomaly configuration for geopotential heights through this week and weekend. That means we won’t be turning cold. But since the pattern will be slightly zonal, we could turn chilly for a bit. After a chilly Saturday, yesterday (Sunday) and today (Monday) were absolute aces outside. Tomorrow should be nice as well but then rain moves in for Wednesday-Thursday in the form of a slow-moving warm front. We get a break Friday followed by more possible rain in the weekend from a cold front and possible coastal low. I will say, that this coming weekend has improved on model guidance vs a few days ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see continued improvement this week. I will update accordingly. But Wed-Thurs are likely locked in for up to an inch of rain. No wind or coastal flooding issues.  

Monday (April 15) high temperatures have broken 80 for many in CNJ/SNJ. It’s only NNJ and immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts who are hanging in the 70s or slightly less. Someone in the Camden/Gloucester County area might reach/break 85. Can’t rule out a rogue shower or thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. Otherwise skies should remain mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (April 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Coasties could hang in the 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (April 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from 50-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as rainfall chances continue into Thursday.

Thursday (April 18) high temperatures should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should remain cloudy with more periods of rain likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations as rainfall chances continue.

Friday (April 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should start cloudy but improve by afternoon/evening. Can’t rule out a few more stray showers through afternoon. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range for most NJ locations.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions from this range based on what a weak coastal disturbance is going to do. But the chilly, cloudy, possibly rainy conditions could carry over through the weekend. I hope to see this change by mid-week. Otherwise the warm stuff should return the following week. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™