An Alright Week Expected (Mar 20-24)

An overall stable week of weather is expected with just a few SNJ notes. Let’s break it down…

Disco: For the most part, high pressure will be in control this week. The first area of high pressure is basically here on the tail of the departing weekend disturbance. That will move E into the ocean and another area of high pressure will move in for later in the week. Between these two areas of high pressure (Tuesday-Wednesday), one or two weak disturbances could float through the southern part of New Jersey. Rain would be the most likely form of precipitation but in the case that the mid-layers are cold enough, non-accumulating light snowfall would be possible. Again, this would likely be for SNJ (not NNJ) only if the N extent of the precipitation shield, from either disturbance, reaches N enough. In situations like this both suppression and confluence can produce drier conditions at the surface.  Otherwise this week is looking cooler overall and rather uneventful. Much warmer weather is anticipated for the upcoming weekend. The second high will depart into the ocean and a strong low will cut to our W, placing us in a fairly large warm sector of southerly flow. Sunday would be the furthest-out day I’m comfortable talking about but it could feature thunderstorm activity along a passing cold front.

Monday (Mar 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for most. SNJ would have the best chance to break 50 somewhere. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide.

Tuesday (Mar 21) high temperatures should reach into the 50s statewide. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most. NNJ elevations could dip into the 20s. Let’s allow a small chance of rain showers overnight primarily for SNJ.

Wednesday (Mar 22) high temperatures should reach into the lower-40s for SNJ and coastal areas. Areas away from the ocean in CNJ and NNJ, especially elevations, should be capped in the 30s. This looks like the coldest day of the week. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the teens and 20s representing the coldest point of the week. Precipitation from the passing disturbance to our S should be held to our S but light precipitation is possible in SNJ if not. No snow accumulations are expected if it falls as frozen.

Thursday (Mar 23) high temperatures should reach the upper-30s/lower-40s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny as we begin moderating into the weekend. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s/30s statewide.

Friday (Mar 24) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. NNJ could possibly hang in the upper-40s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy as a warm front moves through. Let’s allow a small chance of isolated-to-scattered light rain with that but most should stay dry. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should only fall into the 40s statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates Saturday being the nicest and mildest day of the week. We’re talking statewide temperatures at least into the 60s. And you know that interior SNJ and CNJ like to flirt with 70 when that happens! Sunday looks a bit unsettled with a possible cold front passage. You could reasonably expect warmer and mild conditions to continue ahead of any frontal rain and/or thunderstorms. Afterwards temperatures would fall but not back into brutal cold territory…perhaps back to where it belongs for this time of year. Let’s take a closer look on Thursday.

I took the above photo at Sunset Cove in Bowleys Quarters when I lived in Maryland. It was just before sustained spring weather took hold. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™