Another Buildup and Reset

Discussion: The upper levels suggest a zonal flow this week with height anomalies leaning slightly negative for NJ. At the surface this should produce another beautiful day (like Monday – today) for Tuesday but then unsettled humidity Wed-Fri. Wednesday seems like the step-up day and then full-fledged heat and humidity for Thursday. From Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a low will track across SE Canada. That will place us in a warm sector Wed-Thurs (increased temps and humidity) with the stormiest period being Thursday night just ahead of a cold front. Friday looks cooler and less humid but with the energy moving slowly off the coast, some storms could still be around for coastal and southern NJ. Eventually, conditions should improve later Friday and yield to fair and dry conditions for the weekend. We had some rainfall last night but we need more. Drought interests remain concerned.

Forecast

Monday (June 15) high temperatures maxed out in the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. A beautiful day of abundant sunshine and low humidity. Winds should remain light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 48-62 range NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (June 16) high temperatures should again max in the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Perhaps a few spots just over 80. Skies should remain mostly clear with lower humidity and a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (June 17) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A more humid feel with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, especially for afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (June 18) high temperatures should reach 90 or just over for many NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and have an even more humid feel than Wednesday. More isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (June 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Not as hot and not as humid however isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible for coastal and southern NJ areas. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (June 20-21) indicates fair conditions from this range. Highs near-80, low-to-manageable humidity and otherwise looking mostly dry. Let’s check back in a few days to see if anything has changed. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC