Another Coastal System

Discussion: As anticipated last week, we now find ourselves under a strong SE Canadian ridge with a weak upper low meandering from the SEUS up the coast. The upper low will drive another mid-week coastal system (like last week) at the surface. So expect nuisance unsettled conditions for most of NJ Tuesday night through Thursday morning with ECNJ/SENJ taking the brunt of the system in the form of rain, wind, minor coastal flooding and rough surf (conditions we’ve seen many times before). A common theme this week will be elevated humidity…nothing oppressive like a mid-summer wave but not dry, crisp and pleasant. Friday looks like the warmest and most humid day before a cold front chills and dries the entire region from Friday night into the weekend. Some very early indicators suggest a rather dynamic transition from end of September into early October…maybe a few days at the end of September of well above-average temps followed by a HELLO cold front to start October. We’ll see. Invest 92L has formed but should stay well out to sea with regard to NJ. It will likely re-curve even before reaching Lesser Antilles longitude.

Forecast

Monday (Sept 15) high temperatures are maxing around 80 for many NJ locations. Coastal areas closer to mid-70s. Skies should remain mixed with more sun than clouds. Some humidity but not horrible. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the E/NE, breeziest along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from 50-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with isolated showers possible mainly across SNJ/SENJ.

Tuesday (Sept 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Areas away from the ocean, especially NW of I-95/NJTP should see much nicer conditions than the ECNJ/SENJ coast due to approaching coastal system. Expect clouds and developing showers for coastal areas. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE away from the ocean and NW of 95 but breezy-to-gusty for ECNJ/SENJ. Expect rough surf and hazardous rip currents. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range as clouds and rain push further N and W into NJ.

Wednesday (Sept 17) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations. Expect a mixed bag of little sun, decent cloud coverage, rain, wind and possibly thunderstorms. Winds should remain stiff off the ocean (out of E/NE or NE) for immediate coastal areas and lighter away from the ocean (SENJ cries uncle while NWNJ says, “what coastal storm?” kind of thing). Expect rough surf and hazardous rip currents. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-65 range as conditions improve.

Thursday (Sept 18) high temperatures should eventually reach near-80 away from the ocean and mid-70s along the coast. The day should start with coastal system remnants in the form of tapering showers and N/NW breeze. Conditions should then improve from late-morning through afternoon/rest of day. Expect a humid feel when the sun returns over wet grounds. Surf and rip currents should also improve throughout Thursday. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range NNJ to SNJ as humidity hangs on.

Friday (Sept 19) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s with a humid feel, especially for ECNJ/SENJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Expect a radical chance from day to night, due to a cold front, as overnight lows drop to the 45-55 range NNJ to SNJ (coastal regions 55-60) with dropping humidity.

An early look at the weekend (Sept 20-21) indicates a much more fall-feeling environment with high temps possibly struggling to escape the 60s for some areas (max 70-75) with low humidity. Sunday should remain cooler but possibly a few showers around. Not sure how many more 80s we’ll see after Friday as we wade into fall…at least to close out September. The tropics remain quiet for NJ and east coast interests, but I am watching Invest 92L with a far out to sea expectation. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC