Another Early Taste of Fall (Aug 23-25)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 22, 2019 12:04

Another Early Taste of Fall (Aug 23-25)

Discussion: There’s not much to talk about in the upper-levels. The 250mb jet should perform a small dip over the weekend with 500mb geopotential height anomalies near-average. The main driver I’d like to focus on is the surface high that will be moving across SE Canada from W to E. Remember high pressure is anti-cyclonic (spins clockwise). Therefore when the high first approaches wind flow will be out of the N (Friday and Saturday). When the high is to our N flow will switch to more of an E/NE direction (Sunday). When the high departs flow will return to a SE direction (Monday PM and forward). With that said we first have to contend with a cold front. As the high arrives tonight with its front-side N flow it will push the boundary to the S and SE of NJ. This could produce a period of showers and thunderstorms tonight mainly during evening/overnight hours. Until that front arrives (during most of today) expect a final day in the warm sector flow ahead of the cold front. Today might be the last day where high temperatures reach the 90s with disgusting humidity. It’s hard to pinpoint when exactly the front will push through either late tonight or early tomorrow morning. But when you wake up tomorrow morning you’re going to see what I’ve been talking about since Tuesday for premium WNJ supporters. Two weekends ago we saw our first early taste of fall. This weekend will be the second. Dew points should drop into the 40s/50s with afternoon high temperatures struggling to escape the 70s. These conditions should last through about Monday with warmer and more humid conditions returning for next week (Tuesday-forward).

The tropics are slowly waking up. As I’ve been discussing the Sahara Desert has been pumping dry air into the Cape Verde<—>Caribbean trade wind region. This has inhibited tropical development in that traditional Atlantic Hurricane Basin development channel. However something is brewing right over the Bahamas and should slide up the SE US coast over the next week or so. As of right now this tropical wave is weak sauce and will likely not develop into a hurricane. Whether it stays an unorganized tropical wave or becomes a weak named tropical storm is irrelevant. It will stay offshore with minimal fringe impacts to the SE and S Mid-Atlantic US coasts (rip currents, clouds, maybe some outer band showers at most). Impacts are not expected N of OBX and therefore no threat for NJ. I’ll continue to monitor the tropics as we are now entering peak season which lasts through early October (September the absolute peak).

Thursday Night (Aug 22) should feature evening showers and thunderstorms possible after another hot and humid day. Once this activity pushes through some amazing conditions are expected for the entire weekend.

Friday (Aug 23) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 70s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ might hover near-80 at the warmest part of the day. Skies should be mostly sunny with a few lingering clouds mainly in SNJ. You should notice a much more pleasant feel. A few showers might be leftover for SNJ/SENJ early in the morning but by late-morning the entire state should be in a magical state. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should dip into the 50s for most. Warmer ocean temperatures should hold E and S coastal regions in the mid-60s.

Saturday (Aug 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant during daylight hours. A small chance of PM showers exists. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates the super comfortable weather conditions spilling into at least Monday. High temperatures should then creep back up into the 80s with some humidity returning. We’re finished with 90s for now and likely for the rest of August. I can’t promise we won’t see a late-summer heat wave in September but we’ll address that if needed. For now enjoy this second early taste of fall and have a great weekend. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 22, 2019 12:04