Another Fall Smack (Oct 14-18)

Discussion: The original October 18-22 storm signal will actually come into fruition but not for the Mid-Atlantic US…rather for the NorthEast US for Oct 17-18. It was a solid signal which is comforting to see re: long-range ensemble performance. First we’ll see fairly flat/zonal upper-level flow (W flow at the surface) for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday we’ll see a southern stream of energy from the south-central US interact and phase into an upper-level low. As this all happens over us (the Mid-Atlantic US) we will likely see some breezy SE winds and widespread periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall. The system won’t be fully phased yet so we kind of just miss it. By Thursday and Friday the system should be fully phased together and much stronger for the NorthEast US. For us we will likely see the strong NW flow behind the system. So while the storm is hitting coastal New England Thursday-Friday we will likely see NW wind gusts in excess of 40mph with sustained winds of 20-30mph common. The cold front behind the system Wednesday evening into Thursday should be another solid fall smack. Winds should subside by Friday PM hours. The weekend then looks pretty good as upper-level heights rebound a bit with a clear environment. After that the upper-levels look meridional with some wild troughs possible.

Monday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could get closer to the mid-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the low-to-mid 50s due to marine influence.

Wednesday (Oct 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of widespread rainfall likely. Rainfall could be moderate-to-heavy at times with a few inches possible. Winds should be out of the SE…lighter away from the ocean and breezy-to-gusty along the immediate coast. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ as the fall smack arrives.

Thursday (Oct 17) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 50s. Only the immediate coastal areas have the best chance to break 60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be gusty at times out of the W/NW (in-excess of 40mph possible). I recommend securing loose outdoor Halloween decorations or any small people that could blow away. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 as strong NW winds persist.

Friday (Oct 18) high temperatures should again struggle to escape the 50s. Maybe low-60s for immediate coastal areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should subside slightly by PM hours to just breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates milder conditions with highs back into the mid-to-upper 60s maybe near-70 for the warmest spots. Skies look clear for now. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™