Another NWNJ Wintry Graze

Discussion: An initial wave will track across SE Canada tonight (Tuesday night) with no impact to NJ but thatt will leave, in its wake, a thermal gradient boundary for trailing wave/stronger low to track along from the Great Lakes across N NY State and into New England on Wednesday. That second wave/low is what will bring precipitation to New Jersey between about 10am and 6pm on Wednesday (tomorrow).

Initial precipitation should start out in a milder setting mid-to-late Wednesday morning with even NWNJ dealing with snow/ice/rain mixing issues at first. A snow/rain line should then push southeastward and come to rest around/over the I-78/I-287 by noon or just after. A snow thump is then expected between about noon to 2-3pm, tapering off by 5-6pm. During this time, snow could fall and accumulate in NWNJ. The lower 2/3 of New Jersey should expect to start and end as all rain for the entire event outside of a brief wintry start possible for northern A-zone areas. The following map depicts snowfall accumulation amounts after any changeovers for NWNJ, who might start as a mix.

A wildcard scenario is if precipitation starts a little earlier and wet bulb temperatures are reached below freezing earlier in the day. This would mean higher snow amounts for NWNJ and possibly a wintry mix extending down closer, but not all the way to, the I-95 corridor. With no high pressure to the N of this system able to hold the surface colder, expect the warmth to eventually win out to about I-78/I-287. But an earlier start would mean a colder start and its worth mentioning should a snow/ice thump happen on the front end in addition to the early afternoon snow thump. Otherwise, if precip holds off until the expected 10-11am start time, then the coastal plain should warm as expected and all should go as planned with the map illustrated above.

The weekend snow signal is still there but its varying between just snow showers producing light accumulations and a more concentrated system capable of producing light-to-significant accumulations. There’s actually another light wave of snow showers possible Friday (mainly for SNJ) ahead of the Saturday night-Sunday system statewide. Serious tracking for this will begin tomorrow.

In English: Another snow/ice for NWNJ and rain for the rest of NJ scenario is expected on Wednesday (tomorrow). If you are S of I-78/SE of I-287 you can expect mostly rain aside from a brief wintry start being possible closer to those interstates. The higher elevations should see the jackpot accumulations from this light event with ice and rain expected to take solid tolls on possible snowfall accumulations. Sussex/N Warren Counties are favored for the most snow accumulation when all is said and done by about 5-6pm. If the precip arrives earlier tomorrow morning, then snowfall totals could bust high. If it arrives on time (10am or after) then the map illustrated above is what we are expecting. Either way, the lower 2/3 of NJ should not expect snow accumulations. Weekend snow tracking will enter serious mode tomorrow. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC