Another Rainstorm Approaches

Jonathan Carr
By October 28, 2021 15:46

Another Rainstorm Approaches

Discussion: A second synoptic-scale weather system will impact NJ to start this weekend. Therefore, we’ll just go with a discussion article format as the general weekend outlook for now. I’ll likely update tomorrow ahead of the first drops and make sure the Saturday-Sunday forecast is holding.

For now (Thursday afternoon), we have a deep trough coming out of the C US into the E US. In the upper-level low of that trough, there’s sufficient cyclonic vorticity to support at least a sub-1000mb surface low to track up the Appalachian Mountains between now and Saturday night. The worst of the storm for NJ should be as the surface low nears Ohio (between Friday afternoon and evening).

At that point a strong fetch off the ocean (from the E or maybe E/SE) will occur as the heaviest slug of rain falls through NJ (from SW to NE). It’s probably only a few hours of rain but it could stack up and produce more flash flooding like earlier this week. The ocean is still 65F so that’s about how warm it should get during that onshore flow. After that moves through, rainfall should be around overnight into and for most of Saturday. Winds will eventually subside and switch to the W/NW or NW Saturday night into Sunday morning. This should transition NJ to drier and colder conditions for Sunday with rain likely ending well in-time for trick or treat hours.

This is not a nor’easter. The winds will be coming from the SE quadrant into NJ as precipitation moves from SW to NE. Winds will sure as heck rip off the ocean (gusts of 40-60mph) but not out of the NE. The strip of precipitation might be thinner than you are expecting. It’s thin like a traditional thunderstorm cold front passage but instead in the NE quadrant of circulation. Most rainfall after that looks only light-to-moderate.

In English: Expect a period of heavy rainfall and increased winds between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Coastal areas should see the highest winds with gusts of 40-60mph possible. There are coastal flooding concerns for ECNJ/SENJ during the onshore winds. Lesser values away from ocean but still windy for all. Rainfall is looking like 1-2 inches by the time everything tapers off Saturday. Saturday looks cloudy and cooler with remnant showers around. We should dry out Sunday in enough in enough time for trick-or-treat hours. I’ll be updating through the system. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By October 28, 2021 15:46