Another Weekend with Rain

Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay to the N of NJ for the next week or so. This will keep NJ under slightly higher geopotential heights, observed at 500mb, for the same period—producing warmer conditions at the surface. This setup is not, however, able to ward off unsettled surface conditions like a more established ridge would. I’m seeing a few weak disturbances pushing through either over SNJ or just S of SNJ for this weekend into early next week. Friday night doesn’t look too bad with a fresh cold front pushing N to S but Saturday and Sunday are subject to at least passing showers and possibly thunderstorms as the front stalls and ultimately drifts back northward. This look and feel could extend through Monday, possibly Tuesday, before temps kick back up into the 80s with drier conditions mid-next-week into next weekend. Friday could produce a line of thunderstorms to break the heat/humidity for the weekend. So it would be a Tues-Wed warm front, Thurs-Friday warm sector, Friday PM cold front sort of thing that produces better conditions for next weekend. That’s at least what makes meteorological sense to me with the baby trough expected next Friday-ish.

Forecast

Friday (June 13) high temperatures, as of 3pm Friday, have likely maxed in the 70-85 range. NWNJ elevations and ECNJ/SENJ coasts are on the lower side of that range while the I-95 corridor (SWNJ into NENJ) is closer to the upper end of the range. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds with a less humid/breezy feel. Can’t rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially later in the evening. Winds are light out of the E/NE, a little breezy for coasties. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60-70 range as shower and thunderstorm chances increase into Saturday morning.  

Saturday (June 14) high temperatures should reach the 68-75 range NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Right now looking like morning and evening primary batches of rain with a “few-hour” mid-day lull possible. SNJ has the best dynamics for thunderstorms but most of NJ is on the hook for rumbles. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60-65 range as shower/thunderstorm chances persist overnight into Sunday morning.

Sunday (June 15) high temperatures should reach the 65-68 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers likely here and there. It’s not what you want to hear for outdoor activities. Not an all-day heavy rain washout but a very good chance of being a nuisance. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E. Overnight lows should fall back to the lower-60s for most NJ locations as showers taper off.

An early look at next week (June 16-20) indicates unsettled conditions to start the week Mon-Tues…not hot but rainy/stormy. Warmer temps and humidity then returns mid-week into the weekend. Meteorologically, it would make sense to see some type of frontal rain/storm system Friday but that might just be what the doctor ordered to finally break the weekend rain pattern next weekend. For now, have a great this weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC