April 2020 Outlook

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 2, 2020 12:24

April 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of April 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But general temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of reasonable expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast. You’ll never see me commit to specific surface conditions outside of the 7-day forecasting period.

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The following diagram is calculated using WeatherTrends360 proprietary algorithms for New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens (away from the ocean), for example, will verify slightly colder than illustrated due to elevation and soil heat exchange. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to N Delaware/Philly/Trenton – I-95 corridor into NENJ) slightly warmer than illustrated due to urban heat island effect and several other influencing factors. All areas of NJ however would have similar graph trends and sky conditions. It’s best to let the following graph paint an overall picture (trends) instead of focusing on the low-level specific condition details.

Discussion: Well, we made it through another rather uneventful winter (two years in a row now). Aside from a few transient cold snaps it wasn’t much of a winter at all. We’re now turning the corner towards the annual rise in annual temperatures as we approach the heart of spring. Sea surface temperatures are starting to slowly rise through the 40s and should be close to 50s by the end of this month. For the first third of April I am seeing a few low pressure systems tracking through the Great Lakes and into SE Canada. This typically drags a cold front through but allows mild warm-ups ahead in the warm sector. So we should see a few of those which is represented in the above graph with the volatile swings in temperatures for April 4-10. After that we should then see a consistent and sustainable pattern of gradual moderation to finish the month. We’re talking highs consistently in the 60s. As always however spring showers and thunderstorms are possible along any frontal activity or warm-spiking days due to convective instability when warm surface air exists under colder air aloft.

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In English: Temperatures look volatile for the first third of April. The remaining 2/3 of April then looks to feature a more stable gradual climb in temperature. Precipitation appears to be average and will be mostly from frontal activity rather than from organized storm systems. If any of those pop-up I’ll report accordingly. Otherwise everyone have yourself a great April and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 2, 2020 12:24