Aug 7: Thunderstorm Discussion

Discussion: A cold front will push through NJ this evening between about 5pm and 10pm. It hardly makes sense to use the word cold in cold front because all it will do is take temps and dews down a few degrees at most. But it will provide enough of a lifting mechanism to enhance thunderstorms across the region tonight.

Some storms are popping now ahead of the cold front due to redonkulous humidity and diurnal instability/lapse rates. These are the isolated air mass cells you see now on radar. They should continue until a more concentrated and congealed linear thunderstorm segment pushes through as the finale. Flash flooding is likely given the 1.7 PWAT values statewide.

Wind shear is marginally sufficient to warrant severe thunderstorm winds especially closer to the actual frontal passage later tonight. This is where the best lifting and conflicting wind direction (over altitude) should exist.

Some good news for the weekend. High pressure should move across the Mid-Atlantic US and provide lots of relief. We’re talking dews in the 50s with clear skies. Should feel amazing after this week.

In English: Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There are already a few that have popped up today but a more concentrated storm cluster should push across NJ from W to E between about 5pm and 10pm. In reality the period of storms should only be an hour or two. But the 5-10pm window is how long is should take to move across our entire region. Thunderstorms tonight could be severe (damaging winds) and feature flash flooding. The weekend is looking pretty amazing though so hang in there. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™