Back to Reality

Jonathan Carr
By June 5, 2022 22:06

Back to Reality

Discussion: Another gorgeous late-spring overnight is expected tonight (Sunday night). Temps should make their way down to the 50-60 range by about 5am, maybe lower for elevations and interior Pine Barrens. A weak area of high pressure remains overhead tonight through tomorrow. This means the amazing weekend conditions should spill through Monday into Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening we’ll likely start rehumidifying as the high gets over the ocean and sends return flow into NJ from the S. Therefore, the second half of Tuesday should be warm-sectored ahead of an approaching front. The front should move through, with rain and possibly thunderstorms, between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Once the front is through, a synoptic disturbance should push through between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This likely means more rain and storm chances. By Thursday night the disturbance should clear and that should set up a nice/pleasant Thursday night through at least Friday. So, Tuesday night through most of Wednesday and into Thursday morning is the best chance of rain/storms period this week.  As of right now it looks like another synoptic disturbance could push through Saturday-Sunday which would be a weekend bummer for many outdoor activities. I’ll be monitoring throughout this week for any changes (hopefully improvement for outdoor interests). But that’s how it looks now. Otherwise the generally cooler pattern we’ve been in all spring still sort of holds true now in June. It’s just that a few degrees below average in June is still miraculous weather compared to the same in April or even May.

Tropical Storm Alex formed, crossed Florida, and is steaming away out to sea, well to the SE of OBX. A rather weak tropical system for Florida. They basically saw the relative equivalent to us seeing a routine nor’easter. Decent rainfall though. Long-range models are seeing some more tropical activity/signal in the Gulf of Mexico later in June. Will casually monitor for any remnant implications for NJ. Nothing to speak to for now.  

One final discussion note: From now through slightly after the July 4th period, the sun will be at its highest annual angle of the year. This also means the highest UV levels of the year capable of generating harmful sunburn. In weather like this past weekend, it’s easy to find yourself outdoors for long periods of time. More of this is expected with our remaining June pattern. Just use your head and protect your skin.

Monday (June 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Ocean beach areas likely in the mid-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (June 7) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas with ocean beaches a few degrees cooler. Skies should start mostly sunny and give way to clouds by evening as a humid feel returns. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S felt most by the SNJ/SENJ coasties. Overnight lows should hang in the 60s for most areas as overnight showers become possible.

Wednesday (June 8) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s zone for most of the state. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms around with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hover in the 60s as humid/unsettled/stormy conditions continue into Thursday.

Thursday (June 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should start cloudy/rainy/stormy for early AM hours then gradually improve throughout the day. By afternoon it should be mixed with sun and clouds but still isolated shower/storm activity around. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts as skies clear.

Friday (June 10) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Likely cloudier for SNJ and coasties. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates temps in the 70s with clouds and generally unsettled conditions (more rain and storms). Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By June 5, 2022 22:06