Bad Timing. Good for Drought Concerns.

Discussion: The forecast for this Memorial Day Weekend is not great. I held off as long as possible making this forecast, hoping for change. But there has been no change. We’re in for a cloudy, rainy, windy weekend from at least Friday afternoon through at least Sunday afternoon. It’s then very likely that rain will take it’s time ending between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. So the steady rain is Friday afternoon to Sunday afternoon and then broken/scattered showers tapering off to just isolated showers from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. When all is said and done, many areas could exceed 2 inches of rainfall and in some cases greater than 3. Rainfall will happen over the course of the weekend, not in a short period which alleviates flash flooding concerns slightly. Breezy-to-gusty onshore winds will dominate the steadier rain pattern and then relax a little for the taper off. Although there is not a nor’easter, it will feel like there’s a nor’easter as temps pin in the 50-60 range for much of the weekend. This is more like soup weather, not boardwalk pizza weather. A devastating blow to coastal economies starting summer 2026. A much-needed event for our aquifers, reservoirs and vegetation. So, what’s happening this weekend meteorologically?

If you only look at the upper levels (250mb wind and 500mb heights), you wouldn’t suspect a cold and rainy weekend. The upper jet is N of NJ forming a weak ridge of higher height anomalies over the Mid-Atlantic and NE US. It’s the lower-mid levels that tell this story. At 850mb you can see two main drivers (two broad areas of high pressure). One near Bermuda and the other tracking NW to SE across New England. The bottom-side of anti-cyclonic flow of the NE high is going to clash with the top side of the Bermuda high and form an area of lower-level convergence (air comes together and can only go up) spanning from the Mid-Atlantic Us coast all the way into the Great Lakes, possibly even S/C Canada. NJ will be on the N side of the convergence subject to larger scale (not a little sea breeze) onshore (E or E/NE) wind flow. The onshore winds and the precipitation forced by the lifting will produce the rainy windy outcome at the surface, felt greatest along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. By Tuesday, both areas of high pressure will be offshore and help drive warmer temps and drier conditions back up the E US via return flow. Again, bad timing but good for ongoing drought concerns.

Forecast

Friday (May 22) high temperatures should reach near-70 in NWNJ but cooler elsewhere in NJ, as low as near-60 for the coastal areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy. While isolated sprinkles are possible during the day, the steadier rain should hold off until at least afternoon. A cloudy rainy night is then expected. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE and gradually pick up throughout the day. ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas likely gusty out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall and pin in the 50-55 range mainly due to larger scale marine influence.

Saturday (May 23) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range, right near ocean temps. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain expected. Pretty much a washout. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the E with the highest winds occurring along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Temps should only fall a few degrees back to the 50-55 range from continued larger scale marine influence (E winds off the ocean).

Sunday (May 24) high temperatures should reach the 60-65 range. Slightly milder but cloudy skies and more steady rain should continue until at least early afternoon, possibly late-afternoon/evening…broken scattered showers after that and overnight. First half of the day likely a washout. Second half of the day improved but found wanting. Winds should remain breezy out of the E or E/NE for coastal areas but should become lighter out of the W away from the ocean. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ.

Monday (May 25) high temperatures should creep up to near-70 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with still a few isolated showers around. Maybe the sun breaks through in spots. Winds should remain off the ocean but lighter for ECNJ/SENJ. Away from the ocean looks like light winds out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (May 26-31) indicates a return back to highs in the 70s and 80s with a lot of sun. Because of course (sarcasm). Possibly some mid-week pop-up boomers but otherwise nice warm conditions to close out the week, weekend and the month of May itself.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC