Beautiful Fall Conditions (Sept 28-30)

Discussion: Most rain should fall between midnight tonight and late tomorrow morning. Rainfall could be heavy at times. Flash flooding is likely especially along and NW of the I-95 corridor. Areas SE of the I-95 corridor are subject to less rainfall. Rainfall amounts should range from up to 2 inches in NWNJ to maybe just a quarter inch for SENJ. An upper-level trough will then squash the east coast ridge this weekend, just long enough for a surface area of high pressure to slowly crawl through the region. That means dry sinking air in the atmosphere which inhibits rain chances and even most clouds. This should last into Tuesday when the high gets E of NJ. That should then pump the upper-level east coast ridge again via return flow and give us a toasty Tuesday-Wednesday. Cooler and drier conditions are then expected to close the week out.

Tonight’s Rainfall: NWNJ should see the most. SENJ should see the least. A lot could fall in a short amount of time along and NW of the Turnpike which could produce flash flooding. I’m expecting midnight tonight through late-morning tomorrow for the period of rainfall.

Friday (Sept 28) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ. Rainfall should end by late-morning. The day should finish sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Who’s coming to LBI’s Chowderfest this weekend?

Saturday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows could dip into the 40s for NWNJ elevations. The rest of NJ should easily fall into the 50s.

Sunday (Sept 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. A few friendly clouds are possible given the light E winds off the ocean. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

An early look at next week indicates dry and sunny conditions lasting through most of the week. We might get a little toasty in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe (highs in the 80s) but we should return to how it will feel this weekend for Thursday-forward.  Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™