Beautiful Start. Back to Reality for Weekend

Discussion: NJ will remain extra mild through all of Tuesday and most of Wednesday. 70s away from the ocean and upper-50s along the immediate coast. On Wednesday night a cold front will push some rain through. It doesn’t look like a stormy front at this time however let’s leave the opportunity open for a few boomers embedded in the rain. Overall, precipitation looks weaker than it could have been IMO…fizzling showers but still some showers which we’ll take as much as mother nature offers given the ongoing drought. The cold front then moves through and Thursday is back to near-average temperature but with a chill in the air from NW winds. We stay in the near-average temp profile through the weekend. At some point this weekend some showers may scrape extreme NNJ. If that happens during the coldest part of the overnight then it could produce some nuisance wintry stuff. Sunday into Monday could then surge in another warm sector ahead of a Monday night/Tuesday morning cold front. Some more rain and possibly boomers with that as well. So the cold front this coming Wednesday introduces a weak trough but the cold front next Tuesday should introduce a deeper and more potent trough of cold air in the March 16-20. If there’s going to be anything wintry occurring, March 18-ish looks like the coldest point with the most support from an upstream W US ridge and downstream E US trough. I wouldn’t get to excited. Certainly possible but low probability. We’re fighting serious sun angle and climatology at that point. Need a very strong synoptic storm to produce accumulating snow that late. It’s happened before (March 93, 2014, 2018, etc.) but there are no such strong storm signals currently showing…just some weak sauce that wouldn’t cut it as currently modeled. For funsies, there’s another synoptic signal around March 24 whether rain or snow (most likely rain). Will continue to monitor all signals but the next weather of interest is the rain this Wednesday night and cold front to immediately follow.

Forecast

Monday (March 9) high temperatures reached well into the 70s earlier today (Monday) for most NJ locations. Coastal areas remained cooler as expected. Skies should remain mostly clear overnight however fog is possible into Tuesday morning as overnight lows range from about 37-43 NNJ-SNJ. Winds should remain light out of the SW.

Tuesday (March 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should struggle to escape the 50s again. Skies could start out foggy in the morning but once that lifts, should be clear and sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-40s for most NJ locations.

Wednesday (March 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most of NJ again while immediate coastal areas struggle to break 60. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and a couple of showers around during the afternoon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 40s with more showers possible and increased winds.

Thursday (March 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should start unsettled and rainy/breezy but give way to just clouds by late-morning/afternoon. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s up in NNJ elevations to near freezing along the coast.

Friday (March 13) high temperatures should range from about 45-53 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start off mostly sunny but increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the SE, breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 35-40 NNJ-SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (March 14-15) indicates average temperatures for this time of year. That means highs in the 49-54 range and lows just below freezing. Some precipitation could pass through NNJ late Saturday night/early Sunday morning in wintry form while temps are just below freezing. Will monitor throughout the week but doesn’t look like a big deal for now. March 16-20 still looks like the colder period to close out March but snowstorm signals have little-to-no support. Will also be monitoring this. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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