Beautiful Start. Unsettled Finish (May 31-June 2)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 30, 2019 23:05

Beautiful Start. Unsettled Finish (May 31-June 2)

Discussion: Sorry for the late-post of the weekend outlook. I got in late from a business trip (for my primary career) and it’s been challenging to keep up with this week’s severe weather outbreak. Anyhow the last remnant rain and rumbles are currently fizzling out over the region. The upper-jet is going to split over the Mid-Atlantic US before an upper-level trough swings through while re-capturing the lower split off upper-level low. This should produce a gorgeous Friday (statewide) and Saturday (for most aside from some showers and thunderstorms possible in NNJ). On Sunday we are looking at a cold front passage. If the front comes through earlier in the day then lighter showers, maybe even a dry frontal passage is possible. If the front comes through later in the day then we could see heavier rain and stronger thunderstorms. It’s best to look at front timing on Saturday morning and update accordingly for Sunday. Once that front is through we should see a solid cool air injection out of the NW as NJ falls into the trough. The surface low should phase in SE Canada and an organized area of high pressure should dive from the western lakes towards South Carolina. This should reinforce the drier and cooler NW flow. Temps should bottom out Sunday night through Tuesday (highs in the upper-60s/lower-70s…lows in the 40s and 50s) before the flow returns to SW via the back side of the high—and warms temperatures up Wednesday-forward.

Friday (May 31) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. Maybe low-to-mid 80s for the typical warmer WCNJ/SWNJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with reduced humidity. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s NWNJ to SENJ.

Saturday (June 1) high temperatures should again reach near-80 for most. Skies should be mostly sunny for the lower 2/3 of NJ. NNJ however should be partly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the S/SW for most. Coastal regions from Sandy Hook down to Cape May could see light winds off the ocean (out of the E).

Sunday (June 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most maybe low-to-mid 80s for WCNJ/SWNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a chance of rain and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. It’s the kind of thing where 1-2 hours of the day could be rainy/stormy but the other 22-23 hours of the day are dry. Exact timing of the front is still uncertain so check our social/app/web feeds on Saturday morning for a more certain update on timing. Otherwise winds should be breezy out of the S/SW ahead of the front and light-to-breezy behind the front. Overnight lows could dip into the 40s for NNJ elevations with mostly-50s for the rest of NJ.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures more seasonably average for the time of year after a cooler start. Monday into the first part of Tuesday should feel chilly after the recent warmer and humid conditions. Highs might struggle to escape the 60s on Monday followed by mid-to-upper 70s for the rest of the week. Not seeing a ton of rain either. Let’s see how it looks Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 30, 2019 23:05