Best July 4th Weather in Years

Discussion: A small trough is approaching NJ and will swing through between today (Thursday) and Sunday. As it approaches closer tonight (Thursday night), expect a series of showers and thunderstorms to start their strongest in NWNJ around 5-7pm and then push further into NJ N to S until fizzling out in SNJ before midnight. Whether or not they fizzle or sustain strength when pushing through lower NNJ and CNJ is yet TBD but they should certainly weaken to just showers/rumbles by the time they reach SNJ/SENJ later tonight. Once tonight’s (Thursday night’s) activity is fizzled out and through, NJ will move under the bottom/back of the trough, producing a cooler/drier air mass injection out of the N/NW. This will be the reason why Friday, July 4^th will feel so amazing…Bright sun, blue skies (a few friendly clouds here and there by end of day), no rain, and a comfortable feel). Ideal for daytime and nighttime holiday activities! By Saturday, the trough will be well through and the NW Canadian injection will subside. This will allow humidity to slowly trickle back in. Saturday will be first gear, Sunday second, and Monday third gear regarding the step-up in humidity…but all under rain-free skies. So after some shower and storm activity mostly affecting NJ areas NW of I-95 tonight (Thursday), Friday will feel like a gorgeous September day. Saturday will feel like a gorgeous late-May/Early June day. And Sunday will feel like a typical hot and humid July day (but not oppressive). The extremely uncomfortable humidity returns Monday and lasts through next week as a ridge rebuilds in the wake of the zonal flow post-trough reprise (Sat-Sun). And all the typical shower and thunderstorm chances will return next week as the storm fuel environment builds daily.

Forecast

For the rest of today (Thursday, July 3) I expect conditions to remain warm/hot but with a bit lower humidity than recent days. Should feel a little less sticky but remain summery. Showers and thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight. They should start their strongest in NWNJ around 5-7pm and weaken as they push further S into lower NNJ, CNJ, and ultimately fizzling out by the time they reach SNJ before midnight. After any showers/thunderstorms move through and fizzle out, expect temperatures and humidity to drop behind such. Overnight lows should fall to a range of 55-65 NNJ to SNJ with clearing skies.

Friday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide with a noticeably less humid feel. With mostly sunny skies during the day, expect stellar weather conditions for outdoor BBQs, activities, whatever. Then expect the same for firework shows at night. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to a range of about 53-63 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (July 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean and likely near-80 along the coast. Some humidity will be back but it should be manageable (similar to today – Thursday). Skies should be mostly sunny, possibly some higher-level haze/clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to about 58-68 NNJ to SNJ as humidity continues to gradually build back in.

Sunday (July 6) high temperatures should get back over 90 away from the ocean and likely low-to-mid 80s along the coast. Skies should remain mostly clear and sunny with another uptick in humidity from Saturday but still not unbearable…definitely the most hot and humid day of the weekend though. Could a super-isolated afternoon/early evening cell pop on the sea breeze front? Sure but very low probability. The more probable outcome is that the holiday weekend stays dry after Thursday night’s activity. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 65-75 NNJ to SNJ…you see where it’s going for next week.

An early look at next week (July 7-11) indicates the uncomfortable humidity setting up by Monday after a gradual build through the holiday weekend. The hazy, hot and humid theme should continue through most of next week. While no larger-scale systems are showing, expect showers and storms to pop anytime any day within the hot and humid (storm fuel environment). Typical peak summer heat conditions in Jersey. Everyone have a great 4^th of July and weekend. Be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers ad-free content, inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At two bucks per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC