Big Changes Coming

Discussion: I apologize for being somewhat absent and distracted the last few weeks. I’ve been working on a very important presentation that I gave yesterday demonstrating the 4D weather visualization technology that my company has spearheaded me to develop. Yesterday, there were attendees from the FAA, National Institute of Aerospace, Atlantic County Institute of Technology, and Atlantic County Economic Alliance (ECEA). The presentation was held at the National Aviation Research & Technology Park (NARTP) by the Smart Airports & Aviation Partnership (SAAP). Nasa has requested an in-person demonstration. It’s very cool to see two passions of mine (weather and technology) come together and gain traction for a very useful software tool that will enable actionable air and ground safety decisions in real-time aviation operations. I thank you for your time, patience, and understanding while I’ve been very busy in the other aspects of my life.

The well-above-average temperatures and humid pattern we’ve been stuck in will end this weekend. The upper-level ridge pattern over the E side of N America will break down and give way towards more of a below-average geopotential height pattern with dominant upper-level NW flow. For the immediate period, a surface low is wrapping up in SE Canada and high pressure is stationed over the TX/OK area. A cold front is attached to the low which spans down the entire E US coast. The high pressure’s anticyclonic flow will help push the cold front through the E US. Today and tomorrow (until afternoon), we’re warm-sectored ahead of the front meaning more warmth and humidity. Tomorrow afternoon, the front will push through with a short period of rain, wind, and possibly thunderstorms. Can’t rule severe thunderstorms out but very confident that the period of downpour/storms will be short-lived with such momentum in the cold front. So warm/mild with S/SW flow ahead of the front, a stormy period along the front, and then cool/crisp with NW flow behind the front. A transition of late-August feel to mid-October feel taking place between tomorrow afternoon (Saturday) and Sunday morning…rather big changes in the weather pattern. The NW flow should stick around, delivering traditional fall conditions, through at least Thursday. Thursday looks the most unsettled next week with a quick return to seasonal conditions next weekend.

Friday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach near-80 in most places, maybe even a little higher for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and a few clouds here and there. A very mild feel for mid-October and well above-average temperatures. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 60s for most areas.

Saturday (Oct 16) high temperatures should reach near-80 again for most. Coastal areas might hang in the mid-70s. A few showers are possible for NNJ in the morning, but the main event should occur between afternoon and evening hours (from W to E). It looks like a quick period of rain, wind, and thunderstorms. Between the morning showers and PM rain/storms, much of NJ should see warm/mild/humid conditions for the middle of the day without rain. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW during the day. Later at night, behind the cold front, winds should switch to the NW. Overnight lows should then range from 40s to 50s from N to S.

Sunday (Oct 17) high temperatures should feel like a slap back to reality (seasonal conditions). Highs should struggle to escape the lower-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny with flat-bottom wind clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Whatever fall memory feelz you have (football season, pumpkin spice season, outdoor fire season, etc.), you’re going to feel them. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with most of the state dipping into the 40s.

An early look at next week indicates seasonal conditions sticking around. High should struggle to escape the 60s with lows falling to 40s (most of NJ) and 50s (coastal areas). Thursday looks a little unsettled but the rest of the week looks mostly dry. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™