Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Jonathan Carr
By January 11, 2021 11:53

Chilly and Dry (Jan 11-15)

Discussion: The Tuesday-Wednesday storm signal has vanished to the S just like the signal last Friday. Strong consensus in the 5-8 day range. Fell apart at 5 day and in mark. Seems to be the theme which indicates the models are having a hard time processing the expected pattern change. Therefore we’re probably not going to see much happen snow-wise until after this weekend. For this week and weekend we’ll be slightly above-average (highs in 40s lows down to 20s/30s type stuff). It would have to snow overnight for stickage but nothing is really showing. A mostly dry/clear week. With a strong cold front expected this Saturday-Sunday, temps will probably run up in the warm sector a bit towards the end of the week. Monday-forward should then have colder feel as temperatures transition from above average to below average. The pattern should then allow Arctic cold to reload several times from Jan 17 through the rest of January and into early February. This could allow several snow chances as systems track through the east coast with moisture. But that’s next week and beyond. The status quo for now remains…slightly above average temps (but still relatively cold) and a favorable snow storm pattern with no storms to take advantage of it.  

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Jan 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few breaks here and there. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (Jan 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Jan 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to sea.

Thursday (Jan 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to sea.

Friday (Jan 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea with light precipitation possible.

An early look at the weekend indicates transitional conditions with an expected cold front. The frontal passage should pass through NJ in the Saturday-Sunday period which could bring periods of rain and possibly snow for elevations. Let’s see how everything looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By January 11, 2021 11:53