Chilly Start. Mixed End

Discussion: We’re in a mostly zonal wind pattern this week when observed at 250mb. A slight dip in the jet to start this week (lowering heights) and a slight rise in the jet for Thurs-Fri (raising heights) and that concurs with an area of high pressure passing through between today and Friday. The front side of that high pulls the colder air down ahead of it (for today-Wed) and then the backside of that high pulls the warmer stuff N into NJ (for Thurs-Fri). You’ll see the resulting surface temp difference expressed in the daily forecast below. Some rain moved through last night/this morning along a cold front. The next shot for any rain worth a damn is Friday along another cold front. That should produce a chillier weekend with temps then moderating milder to start next week. I am then seeing some persistent ridging in the E US April 1-April 7 which should produce even milder temperatures at the surface and that’s about as far out as I can confidently see temp profiles.  Not seeing any snow signals to close out the bottom of the 9^th inning of the baseball game (March 31). Anything snow-wise that happens in April are mostly just lake-effect snow showers and extremely rare. Synoptic snow is even rarer. It has happened before but again rare. It’s much more common for NNJ elevations to experience non-accumulating snow and/or mixed precipitation in April with the rest of (most of) NJ seeing rain. We’ll call that snow extra innings in the low chance that they happen. Otherwise, spring feel (not just spring on calendar) is a go, especially after this weekend.

Forecast

Monday (March 23) high temperatures should max in the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations. A few spots just over 50. Either way, a cooler feel after the milder weekend. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a rainy start giving way to improvement by late-afternoon/evening. Winds should start light but become breezy at times out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to near-30 for most NJ locations as breeze continues into Tuesday.

Tuesday (March 24) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most NJ locations, perhaps mid-40s along the ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and some clouds. Winds could start breezy in the morning but relax to light out of the W/NW by afternoon. Overnight lows should fall to the 30-40 range NNJ-SNJ.

Wednesday (March 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-45 range NNJ-SNJ. Can’t rule out a passing shower overnight.

Thursday (March 26) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations, possibly mid-70s away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. NNE elevations and coasties likely held in the 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds…a little cloudier for NNJ than SNJ. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s with more passing showers possible into Friday.  

Friday (March 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. Maybe some spots over 60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 25-35 range NNJ-SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (March 28-29) indicates below average temperatures with most of NJ maxing in the 40s, some spots maybe just over 50. After this Friday’s rain, Saturday and Sunday look dry. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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