Chilly Start. Warm Finish (April 9-13)

Discussion: An upper-level disturbance will float through the area (to our N) this evening through tomorrow morning. This has the ability to produce a wintry mix of rain/and or snow with little to no accumulation. If NWNJ elevations squeeze out a slushy coating on natural surfaces then so be it…roads should be mainly wet. We then remain chilly through Tuesday. Wednesday starts our warm moderation period which lasts at least through Saturday but possibly through Sunday. We have high pressure setting up near the traditional Bermuda high location along with another Thursday shortwave near the Great Lakes. This combination should set up the SW or S/SW jet that will bring us the warmer conditions. At some point on Sunday, a cold front should push through. I expect a decent amount of rainfall and possibly thunderstorms along this frontal passage. The warmer and more humid Wed-Sat period will feed into such. An earlier Sunday frontal passage would mean a cloudy, rainy and possibly stormy Sunday. A later Sunday frontal passage would mean another warm and humid day on Sunday with stormy activity pushed back to Sunday PM hours. We’re simply going to have to play it by ear this week on the Sunday frontal timing. Once this front is through we should moderate to near-average, possibly below-average, temperatures. We’re not going back to winter weather but highs might only top out in the upper-50s/lower-60s. We will certainly have a colder air mass aloft but the sun angle should win out for a spring-feeling day IMO…not a winter feel like today. By next Wednesday we could be flirting with breaking 70 again.

Monday (April 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s statewide. Skies should transition from partly sunny to mostly cloudy by sundown. Light precipitation is expected during evening/overnight hours in the form of rain and/or snow. Little to no accumulation is expected. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should dip into the 30s statewide (most of the state above freezing less the highest elevations of NWNJ).

Tuesday (April 10) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most. Skies should transition from mostly cloudy to partly sunny by afternoon. Light AM precipitation in the form of rain and/or snow is possible (carry-over from Monday night) but again, little to no accumulation is expected. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 25 to 35 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (April 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ might take a run at 60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

Thursday (April 12) high temperatures should range from 60-70 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with light rain possible. NNJ is currently favored for light rainfall over SNJ but all are on the hook. Winds should be light, possibly breezy at times, out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 50 for most. NNJ elevations might dip into the upper-40s.

Friday (April 13) high temperatures should range from 70-80 for most. Coastal regions might hang in the 60s due to marine influence. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most. There’s a chance parts of interior CNJ/SNJ fail to dip below 60.

An early look at the weekend indicates a warm Saturday (just like Friday) followed by a mild, but probably not as mild, Sunday. Sunday could feature a cloudy, rainy and possibly stormy frontal passage. That means very warm S wind conditions ahead of the cold front followed by rain/storms and ultimately a cooler air mass Sunday night into Monday. Therefore if the Sunday front passes slightly later in the day then we’ll see a third day in-a-row (Sunday) of late-May temperatures. We should then level off near-average, possibly slightly below-average, to start next week…highs in the upper-50s/lower-60s kind of thing with cooler but above-freezing nights. We might be back to pushing 70 again by next Wednesday however. Let’s take another look at the Sunday frontal passage timing in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™