Cloudy Stormy Wet Conditions (May 3-5)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks pretty flat for the next week or so. I wouldn’t call it 100% zonal but low-amplitude for sure. When the jet rises a bit N of NJ we see milder temps and then when it’s slightly S of NJ we see cooler temps. When the wind is off the ocean (out of the NE-E-SE) it pulls in cooler marine temperatures in the 50s for at lease ENJ/SENJ. We saw this yesterday.  Temperatures aside this flat jet will act as a highway for weak-to-moderate disturbances to ride right over NJ. Therefore this sets up a prolonged period of unsettled weather conditions. It’s not like it will rain 24/7 for the next 7-10 days. There will be on-and-off periods of rain/thunderstorms surrounding each individual disturbance. It’s a nuisance pattern. Nothing destructive just annoying for outdoor interests. We might see a mid-next week thunderstorm outbreak if a cold front can push through strong enough. I’ll revisit this idea in a few days if still indicated by model guidance.

Friday (May 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few small sunny poke-throughs possible. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be around but not guaranteed. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (May 4) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. 80 is not impossible closer to Philly/Trenton. Skies should start mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms possible especially for CNJ and NNJ. Skies could then improve by late-morning/afternoon but still with the chance of isolated passing showers. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most areas as more rain approaches.

Sunday (May 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain, possibly embedded thunderstorms, possible. It’s too uncertain to tell whether rain ends closer to noon or closer to sunset. It’s a very unsettled and uncertain day overall. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 statewide.  

An early look at next week indicates high temperatures in the upper-60s and 70s with the on-and-off rainy/stormy pattern continuing. Let’s take another look on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™