Cold Dry Air Returns

Jonathan Carr
By February 4, 2022 11:53

Cold Dry Air Returns

Discussion: A shallow trough will push all of today’s (Friday) rain-ending-wintry from NW to SE stuff out and set up a colder and much drier weekend. Mostly positive geopotential heights then move in for next week until the next likely trough next weekend. On Monday night into Tuesday, a weak coastal disturbance could pass the SENJ coast close enough to generate some wintry precipitation for parts of NJ. Again, it’s weak and doesn’t look like a big deal even if all snow. It could very well stay offshore leaving us cloudy. I’ll have more idea about track and precip extent through the weekend. After that the pattern should relax with broad weak high pressure overhead. That should allow daytime temps to reach into the 40s and overnight temps to sink back to the 20s each night heading into the weekend. Another trough should then move in for next weekend and bring daytime highs back down to the 30s with teens and 20s overnight. A longer-range storm signal exists towards the end of the weekend but lets get through this Monday night-Tuesday first. Longer range teleconnections look unfavorable for winter storm development. Snow could still happen but is much less probable then the setup we just exited in January.

Friday (Feb 4) high temperatures maxed out during AM hours and are now dropping. They should steadily drop into the teens/20s for all of NJ. Steadier precipitation should taper off from NW to SE between now (for NWNJ) and late-afternoon/early evening (for SENJ). Lighter on-and-off  precip could take longer to taper through evening.  Anything wet and untreated will freeze overnight. Winds should become light out of the NW and increase some overnight.

Saturday (Feb 5) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 20s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from single digits to teens from N to S.

Sunday (Feb 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 30s in the afternoon after a cold sunrise (coldest point of the weekend). A weak east coast disturbance will pass NJ well to the S. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be tranquil. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from N to S.

An early look at next week indicates a weak storm signal Monday night into Tuesday. I’ll be monitoring any trends this weekend. Right now not a big deal but could bring some wintry precip to the area. The rest of next week looks calm and milder. Highs in the 40s lows in the 20s. A colder pattern then looks to reload starting next weekend but not favorable for winter storm development. Would need a thread the needle event for it to happen. Let’s see how everything looks in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By February 4, 2022 11:53