Cold Front to Knock Down Humidity

Discussion: The current tropical air mass (beneath the E US ridge) will give us one more hot and humid day today (Friday). We’ll mostly be in a warm sector flow ahead of a cold front which will make the heat and humidity sting a little more than even yesterday. A cold front, attached to a low tracking across Canada, will push through NJ between this evening and overnight hours. Common meteorological sense says that if a cold front (a lifting trigger with shear associated) slides beneath the tropical air mass, causes lifting, high dew point air condensates into rain and the associated updraft/downdraft friction creates lightning. With that said, thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into evening hours (Friday) just from a common sense point of view statewide. What I’m not sold on is whether a congealed linear segment of storms will form (everyone gets a brief storm period) or if the line of storms will be broken/scattered (some see storms others see nothing). But all will see some relief, at least from the humidity, when we wake up Saturday morning. We don’t have a trough behind the cold front moving in. Instead we have a zonal flow pattern setting up with W winds. This means that there will be a very little decrease in temperatures immediately behind the cold front (for Saturday and Sunday). The relief will be a drop in dew points (humidity). Saturday should feel like a great summer day and be dry. Sunday, the humidity returns as does thunderstorm chances for afternoon-overnight hours. Next week looks more settled and stable with temps in the 70s/lower-80s and reasonable humidity. Still no widespread rainmakers on the horizon (bad for drought concerns) but a few rain chances here and there leading into the start of summer next weekend.  

Forecast

Friday (June 12) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean today with heat indices north of 100 (dew points north of 70 = high humidity). Coastal areas should push into the mid-to-upper 80s. All hot weather safety precautions are in place regarding heat exhaustion/heat stroke. Stay as hydrated and cool as your situation allows. Thunderstorms are possible between late-afternoon and evening hours but likely more of an isolated/scattered situation, not widespread. Storms, if you get hit, could feature winds capable of mild-to-moderate damage (roof shingles missing, branches/trees downed, isolated power outages, etc.). Wouldn’t be surprised to see more pockets of dime-size to half-inch hail. Heavy downpours possible with the tropical environment. Run-of-mill lightning frequency. Winds should be light out of the W/NW otherwise (not under/near a storm). Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ as conditions improve behind the cold front.

Saturday (June 13) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range for most NJ locations. We’ll be behind the cold front but this time of year, relief comes with a reduction of humidity more so than a reduction in temperatures. So, hot but without the tropical humidity. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range NNJ to SNJ. A much better feel at night.

Sunday (June 14) high temperatures should again reach the 85-90 range for most NJ locations but humidity will be back. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most of the day. Thunderstorms will be around between afternoon and overnight hours. Another isolated-to-scattered look though, not widespread. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ as thunderstorm chances persist into early Monday morning.

An early look at next week (June 15-19) indicates a more stable temperature profile as we basically lead up to welcoming summer in for next weekend. I’m seeing temps in the 70s/lower-80s with mostly fair conditions and a few rain chances here and there throughout the week. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC