Cold Start. Mild Finish (April 1-5)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 31, 2019 20:59

Cold Start. Mild Finish (April 1-5)

Discussion: Real quick tonight should be a cold one. High pressure will pass overhead providing cool and dry air for Monday and Tuesday. Monday night should be another cold one but likely the last one this cold. Despite the colder upper-level pattern Monday and Tuesday should still break 50 during peak sunlight. A coastal storm will then pass by Tuesday into Wednesday just out of reach for NJ. Only the ENJ/SENJ coasts have a chance to see increased N/NW winds and fringe outer rain bands. I could see the surf being pissy. While sparing NJ the coastal storm system could deliver higher impacts to OBX and Cape Cod due to their further reach into the Atlantic Ocean—closer to the storm track. High pressure should then dry things out for Wednesday and Thursday as we moderate milder in temperature. More rain is expected from an unorganized frontal passage Friday into Saturday morning. Saturday and Sunday then look like butter with sunny highs in the 60s possibly 70s inland.  The milder pattern looks to last into next week with overall warm period duration increasing in the future. The colder periods are not completely finished but should become way more transient in nature by mid-April.

Monday (April 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most with CNJ/SNJ areas away from the ocean possibly reaching into the lower-50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-freezing from NNJ elevations to the coast.  

Tuesday (April 2) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Elevations and immediate coastal areas could hang in the 50s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Can’t rule out some PM rain for the coast. Winds should be light out of the E away from the ocean but perhaps breezier and out of the N/NE closer to the ocean. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.  

Wednesday (April 3) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. If anyone is going to flirt with 70 it would be interior CNJ/SNJ. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (April 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most with a few spots possibly cracking 60. Skies should start mostly sunny but gradually increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (April 5) high temperatures should reach the 50s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates mostly-sunny and mostly-dry 60s possibly even 70s. And that looks to last through at least mid-next week. The isolated instability-driven spring shower caveat however must always be stated when dealing with early-year mild weather. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 31, 2019 20:59