Cold Start. Mild Finish (March 25-29)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 24, 2019 21:47

Cold Start. Mild Finish (March 25-29)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should leave the entire region alone until Sunday (March 31). Lower 500mb geopotential heights are expected with the weak wave passage Monday night into Tuesday morning but then higher heights are expected from Wednesday through at least Sunday morning. Therefore Monday night through Wednesday morning should be on the colder side. There’s some data suggesting snow mixing in with the rain Monday overnight into Tuesday morning but I wouldn’t hold my breath for a snow day. Any snow would be conversational and likely not stick to roads. If there’s a coating on the grass then so be it. Honestly the possibility of anything wintry is pretty low just not completely off the table. The higher upper-level heights from Wednesday into the weekend should produce mild conditions at the surface, especially Friday and Saturday. This mild period is expected via the SW return flow of high pressure. On Sunday we might deal with a cold front capable of producing at least periods of rain and possibly some boomers. The frontal passage would in-theory cool us down again for the start of next week but let’s not get too far ahead.

Monday (Mar 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most. Skies should gradually increase in coverage throughout the day. Rain is likely for evening hours into Tuesday morning. Snow could mix in with rainfall but little-to-no accumulations would be expected, especially on paved surfaces. Overnight lows should range from low-20s to low-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Mar 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny after morning clouds and precipitation clears out. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.  

Wednesday (Mar 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most. ENJ coastal regions could hang in the 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Mar 28) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most. ENJ coastal regions could hang in the 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

Friday (Mar 29) high temperatures should reach at least 60 for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could take a run at 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates more mild temperatures for at least the first half. Sunday might close out the weekend with some rain in the mid-to-upper 50s. I’ll be watching for this to possibly spark some t-storms after the very mild period leading up. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 24, 2019 21:47