Cold Start. Mild Finish (Nov 2-6)

Discussion: A meridional dip in the upper jet will dominate the region with a colder pattern from Sunday night (tonight) through Tuesday. We might be looking at the coldest shot of air yet this season. But first let’s talk about the trough approach. Low pressure tracking through SE Canada is responsible for dragging the cold front through which will be reinforced by high pressure dropping into the Mississippi area. This is what is driving the moderation in temperature and frontal precipitation today/tonight (Sunday). We felt the warm sector this morning, we’re now feeling the frontal precip, and tonight we’ll feel the cold air advection behind the front. Monday and Tuesday should then be much colder as the multi-layer N/NW jet ensues and drives colder Canadian air into the region. After that (from Wednesday-forward) the upper jet should remain N of NJ and allow a prolonged mild period from about Nov 4-15. When I say mild, I mean highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s in general. About the only weather safety hazard I’d like to point out is fog. With the warmer air initially taking over the cold air mass that will be in place Mon-Tues, I could see fog problems on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings until the dew point profile stabilizes. Until then, we’ll have warm air advection, easily above existing dew points, moving in from the S/SW and SW…hence the recipe for potential fog later this week. Looking way into the long-range, a strong cold front is modeled around Nov 15 but let’s take every 7 days at a time for now.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Nov 2) high temperatures should fail to escape the 40s aside from immediate coastal areas of ECNJ/SENJ. Maybe they just break 50. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be sustainably breezy with gusts of 40+mph possible at times. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to mid-40s from elevations to sea, possibly a little colder.

Tuesday (Nov 3) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be lighter out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-to-upper 20s to near-40 from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Nov 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. You might see parts of interior CNJ/SNJ break 60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea. Overnight fog is possible especially towards daybreak Thursday.

Thursday (Nov 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a relatively pleasant feel. AM fog is possible. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea.

Friday (Nov 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a continued pleasant feel. AM fog is possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates the relatively mild and pleasant daytime conditions continuing through Sunday. Overnight hours still look cool but nothing I would consider cold. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™