Cold Start Mild Finish

Discussion: Models were correct about a week ago in that a ridge would develop now, out in the W/C US, and reciprocate a colder trough for the extreme EC which includes NJ. This should start us off colder this week until the ridge makes its way across to the E US. At the lower levels, the primary driver of this week’s conditions will be a W-to-E tracking area of high pressure. The ridge currents steer the lower-level features. Ahead of the arriving high will be colder northerly flow (Tuesday-Wed AM for NJ). Under the high will be a tranquil moderation (Wednesday PM-Thursday AM for NJ). Behind the high will be a milder spike (Thursday-Friday for NJ). So we start colder and transition to rather glorious conditions for mid-November by the end of the week. Little-to-no precipitation is expected. Winds could pick up a little on Tuesday with the developing N/NW jet that will usher in the colder air mass for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Saturday looks like it should be busier along the east coast per the models. We have an approaching trough and a coastal system coming out of the Gulf-turning up the east coast. Models currently have these two features interacting way too late to bring hazardous weather to NJ. It does however go on to develop a winter storm for parts of N VT/N NH/N Maine and SE Canada. But for NJ, just sprinkles from loose initial weak interaction. I will be watching the interaction this week as anything earlier could mean increased effects for NJ (more rain, more wind – but likely not snow). Traditional snow tracking season begins just after Thanksgiving. We can call it black Friday. Again, traditional! I know we’ve had some early freak snow systems (Oct 2011, Nov 2012, etc.). But as of right now, nothing is showing and I see no reason to differentiate away from a traditional “Black Friday starts the snow season for NJ.” Snow lovers have to hang in there for a few more weeks.

Monday (Nov 6) high temperatures maxed out around 50 for most areas today (Monday). Skies are mostly clear for SNJ and most of CNJ. NNJ was subject to more cloud coverage and even a few sprinkles. No big deal. Winds are light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas will likely hang in the mid-40s due to marine influence.

Tuesday (Nov 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for N areas and mostly sunny for S areas. Winds should be breezy at times out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should hang in the 30s.

Wednesday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Nov 9)high temperatures should reach into the lower-60s, possibly a bit higher. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ areas away from the ocean, mid-to-upper 40s along the coasts.

Friday (Nov 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should start mostly sunny with clouds working in during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates cooler temperatures after the Thurs-Fri spike. But not yet cold. There’s an active east coast setup on Saturday but as of now it only looks like a few showers for NJ. Will have to see more data evolve this week. Otherwise, weekend looks great for outdoor interests (raking leaves, winterization, etc.). After this Thurs-Fri mild spike, I’m seeing a series of cold shots, each one colder than the next through the end of November. No snow systems in sight at the moment, but we’re only a few weeks away from when typical snow tracking season starts. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™