Cold Start. Mild/Stormy Finish.

Jonathan Carr
By March 27, 2022 15:44

Cold Start. Mild/Stormy Finish.

Discussion: Snow showers are likely today and tomorrow with below-average temperatures. It’s…it’s not ideal if you are looking forward to warm spring weather. The Great Lakes are melting after being frozen over winter and this provides a moisture tap for cold NW flow to deliver us the flurries, snow showers, and possibly even some squalls. Tonight should fall into the 20s for most (low-30s for immediate coast). Tomorrow (Monday) should be the last day of the year where highs are stuck in the 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday are a little warmer (highs in the 40s) and Thursday should then start a stretch of conditions more seasonably average. A trough is departing the E US with a small but tall ridge approaching from the W. This should provide NW upper-level flow into Wednesday morning with the coldest of it happening between tonight and Tuesday morning. A warm front will then push through late Wednesday into Thursday and we’ll be mild again Thursday Friday as showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front impact NJ. I’ll be tracking these with separate articles as severe weather is on the table. The weekend then looks dry and breezy in the wake of the cold front but it won’t feel like winter cold, only spring cold. We’re talking about highs in the 50s for most (maybe low-60s for some) and overnight lows in the 30s/40s. But the dry and sunny conditions should feel nicer than the next few days. Ugh, let’s get through Wednesday everyone!

Monday (March 28) high temperatures should stay in the 30s statewide and might struggle to break 30 for NWNJ elevations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Snow showers are possible given the strong flow over the now less-frozen Great Lakes. Winds should be breezy to gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 20s for most areas, maybe near-30 for immediate coastal areas. Winds should remain breezy/gusty.

Tuesday (March 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy to gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s from N to S as winds finally relax.

Wednesday (March 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should start mostly cloudy with showers possible (morning favored over afternoon). Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from N to S.

Thursday (March 31) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most areas and possibly lower-70s for some (likely interior CNJ/SNJ). Skies should be mostly cloudy with isolate showers possible during the day (otherwise sunny) and thunderstorms possible afternoon-evening. Winds should be breezy out of the S, likely gusty for SNJ immediate coastal areas. Overnight lows should stay in the 50s as rain tapers off by daybreak Friday morning.

Friday (April 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds but dry. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from N to S.

An early look at the weekend indicates drier conditions with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Let’s see how this week shakes out first. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By March 27, 2022 15:44