Cold Start. Wet Transition. Milder Finish

Discussion: The squirrels are going crazy. The acorn drop this year was aggressive. The weak La Nina ENSO state looks to hold. The -QBO (westerly winds around the equator) look to hold. The MJO is looking like phase 6-7 into December as blocking establishes. Stratospheric warming is expected around the end of this month (November) which could propagate downwards through the troposphere with an elongated Polar Vortex (PV) by mid-December. I think I’m feeling a cold and snowy winter folks, or at least to start winter December into January. We’re certainly due for it. I wish I had physics-based evidence to prove this, but we’ll just have to wait and see if all these signs are legit or not.

For now, we have a few more cold days this week (today and tomorrow) where highs top out in the 40s. Lake effect snow showers are possible at any time, especially N and W parts of NJ. We’re then (Wednesday-forward) expecting highs to get back into the 50s, possibly even flirt with 60 by early next week heading into Thanksgiving. After that, I expect colder temperatures to move in by the end of Thanksgiving weekend and stick around for much of December with an active storm pattern, hence the recipe for snow potential. It’s a much more promising look for the snow lover than prior years where December opens up with a blowtorch Nino pattern, +QBO, +NAO, etc.

The next chance for precipitation is this Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The ground will likely be too warm (above 32) for anything to stick, however rain could mix with some wet snow across portions of NJ, mainly NNJ/CNJ. Most model guidance is unanimous in this idea…cold rain/pelty wet snow but likely no stickage between midnight and about 7am Wednesday morning. This disturbance should transition us from the colder pattern to the near-average/above average pattern through Thanksgiving Day. This happens as the backside of the trough exists the region to the E. A series of ridging should then takeover from about Nov 20-28 before a trough moves back in during Thanksgiving weekend. I’m going to be starting regular videos around then. Very excited!

Forecast

Monday (Nov 17) high temperatures should stay just below 50 for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain breezy/gusty out of the W/NW through about sundown and subside into overnight hours. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas away from the ocean, slightly below freezing for elevations and closer to 40 along the immediate coast.

Tuesday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds during the day. Rain is possible later in the evening/overnight. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 as rain pushes through. A non-zero small chance that some of the rain falls in the form of snow overnight but the ground will likely be too warm for stickage.

Wednesday (Nov 19) high temperatures should reach the 47-53 range from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a rainy start. Again, there is a small chance of some snow mixing in with the rain, especially N of I-78/NW of I-287 but stickage going to struggle with surface temps above 32. Maybe just some more conversational snowfall/white rain. Regardless, skies should improve heading into afternoon hours. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 30-40 range from NWNJ elevations to SENJ coasts.

Thursday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a passing isolated shower or two. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Nov 21) high temperatures should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start cloudy but improve by afternoon/evening. Some more small chances for passing isolated showers, mainly for NNJ…but most should remain dry. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 35-45 range with some more rain possible into Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend (Nov 22-23) indicates tranquil conditions. Mixed sun and clouds, highs in the 48-55 range, lows in the 30-40 range. Basically near or just slightly above average for the time of year. These conditions look to hold through about Thanksgiving before we really drop off in December. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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