Cold Uneventful Conditions Expected (Nov 16-18)

Discussion: The upper levels look very zonal through this weekend and into next week until a trough tries to slide in midweek. Zonal means calm and uneventful so that should be some good news for Thanksgiving travel. With the trough expected to deepen midweek, I would say next Tuesday PM through Thursday AM would be the coldest conditions at the surface. I am starting to pay attention to a favorable winter storm pattern in the last week of November. We have a –EPO (trough in E Pacific), +PNA (Ridge over W US), -NAO (blocking over Greenland) and a –AO (cold air spillage from the Polar Regions). While this does not guarantee a winter storm at the surface, it is definitely a favorable environment for winter storm development. And that’s all I have for right now…a winter storm signal. No reason to panic or get excited yet. You can have all the ingredients on the counter to bake a cake as well as a pre-heated oven. You still need a force to mix the ingredients and place in the oven. We still will need a surface solution produced from the favorable pattern and we won’t have details on that until the 7-8 day before window. Let’s take it from there if the synoptic signal is still showing.

Friday (Nov 16) high temperatures are topping out in the 40s statewide. Perhaps parts of SNJ will flirt with 50. Skies obviously started cloudy with tapering precipitation this morning (both wintry and non-wintry) but skies are clearing and conditions should continue to improve. The worst of the winds are over but winds should remain breezy out of the W today. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to near-40 NNJ to SNJ as winds continue to subside.

Saturday (Nov 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a few friendly clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Nov 18) high temperatures should range from 40 to 50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly cloudy for most. NNJ has a small chance to see light precipitation (wintry and/or non-wintry) but nothing major (trace-to-light accumulations). Winds should be near-stationary (a few mph in any direction). Overnight lows should range from near-30 to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Cold and dry with Wednesday likely the coldest day and night of the week. Not seeing any problems for Thanksgiving Day nor the weekend at this time.

A larger synoptic storm signal exists in the last week of November. Obviously details are laughable at this point but I will be tracking the evolution in the upper-levels as we closer approach. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™