Cold Weekend Expected (Feb 8-10)

Discussion: The upper-level pattern is whack. There’s a split-flow near the NW US and a convergence zone in the central US. Friday should reach well into the 50s for most as NJ is warm-sectored. A cold front should then push through Friday evening with high pressure dominating Saturday and Sunday. Expect cold dry air with windy conditions right after the frontal passage. High pressure should then move offshore by Sunday night/Monday morning as a weak disturbance floats through. This should produce light snow across most of NJ. SENJ would have the best chance of rain. We’re clear Monday and most of Tuesday. The next winter storm signal (for Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM) has remained alive since this past Sunday. We have a weak low tracking across the US towards the Great Lakes but should plow into a strong high. This could transfer the low to a coastal storm system capable of producing plowable accumulations. If there is less of a transfer then a snow to ice/rain scenario exists. The evolution of model data and live observations this weekend will be key as serious tracking begins. I’ll keep you posted.

Friday (Feb 8) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for most. Expect a pretty steep drop in temperature once the cold front is through later in the evening. Skies should improve throughout the day after any early-morning rain tapers off. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty, starting off out of the S and rocking to the W/NW by evening. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Feb 9) high temperatures should struggle to climb above freezing. Mid-30s at most. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from single digits in NNJ elevations to about 20 along the SENJ coast as winds subside.

Sunday (Feb 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-30s for most. Skies should increase in cloudiness throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from low-20s to low-30s NNJ to SNJ with light snow possible for most into Monday. SENJ has a better chance of rain than snow.

An early look at next week indicates light snow/rain ending Monday morning. I doubt anyone would exceed the C-1” range. Then all eyes turn to a strong winter storm signal midweek. It’s a little too early for specifics but the signal does remain. I’ll keep you posted during the weekend as we start to track seriously. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™