Colder Air Returns

Discussion: I apologize I wasn’t able to get a more detailed weekend outlook out for this past weekend. I was only able to do a quick update late Friday night. It was a busy life weekend but here we are. This past weekend was obviously a warmer conclusion to the overall pattern with most rain (yesterday-Sunday and today-Monday) staying N of I-78. A cold front is pushing through on the front-end of an approaching deep trough. This frontal rain axis should leave NNJ and push through SNJ overnight tonight—setting up a cooler pattern for this week. There is a coastal disturbance out in the ocean that could bring some light rain to extreme SENJ on Halloween late-afternoon through evening. It’s not what you want to hear for trick-or-treating in extreme SENJ but it shouldn’t be too bad. We’re talking S Ocean County down through E Atlantic County and about half of Cape May County. There’s an even smaller chance it holds off until closer to 9-10pm but we’ll have to play by ear. The rest of NJ should be dry and clear for trick-or-treating hours.  Halloween (Tuesday) should be a day of transition (colder winds moving in over a warm surface). Wednesday into Thursday should be the coldest stretch of the period as the surface holds chill and winds subside—allowing for overnight radiational cooling. With that said, Thursday morning, just before sunrise, should be the coldest point of the period. Certainly some freeze/frost issues all three nights with Wed-Thurs the best chance for such. The wind associated with the front and colder air mass moving in should shake a lot of leaves down from the late-foliage. Thursday night could remain on the colder side at least through midnight but warm air is expected to advect in for Friday-Sunday. The deep trough swings through Tues-Thurs. The coastal disturbance rides the front of trough Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. But then a small area of ridging builds for the weekend. It’s not a super-ridge with near-record highs like the last few days (near-80). It’s more of a…highs in the 60s type thing with sunny skies…immaculate weekend conditions. If this forecast holds, then we will have two good weekends in a row after departing from the weekend rain pattern. Good news for outdoor weekend activities. But after the Tuesday extreme SENJ rain chances, all of NJ looks dry for the rest of the week into this weekend. With another trough expected to rebuild next week (Nov 6-forward), we can assume that the weekend moderation period will be transient (a few days) before we return to the overall colder (winter-approaching) pattern next week.

Monday (Oct 30) high temperatures should vary from N to S. 50s maybe 60 for NNJ but SNJ is well into the 70s and could run at 80 again. Clouds and rain are holding N of I-78, much like yesterday, and remains light. All while SNJ sees sunshine today. This should all clear out overnight as the cold front pushes through NJ, possibly dropping some light rain across SNJ pre-dawn Tuesday.

Tuesday (Oct 31 – Halloween) high temperatures should just break into the lower-50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A few rain showers are possible during late afternoon-evening hours in extreme SENJ. All other NJ areas should be dry for trick-or-treating. Extreme SENJ shouldn’t be too disruptive for the kids but the chances for some light rain do need mentioning. With any luck it will hold off until just after trick-or-treating. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to near-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts (most of NJ in the 30s).

Wednesday (Nov 1) high temperatures should just touch 50 in the afternoon. Skies should improve through morning and eventually clear by afternoon. A much colder look and feel to the sky. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from 25-35 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Freezing down to I-95. Frost well into SNJ. NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens should fall into the 20s.

Thursday (Nov 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Nov 3) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most of NJ but possibly hang as warm as mid-40s along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast.

An early look at the weekend indicates amazing conditions for this time of year. Highs in the 60s, lows 30-40, and clear skies/lots of sunshine. Then back to colder temps the following week. Would be two good weekends in a row after the weekend rain pattern that set in through Sept-Oct! Let’s check back in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™