Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Jonathan Carr
By January 17, 2021 14:53

Colder Conditions (Jan 18-22)

Discussion: Tonight should start a prolonged colder pattern for NJ. Nothing record breaking, just colder. It should already feel colder today than the warm sector air mass we saw earlier this weekend. This week should behave like a V graph of cold. Monday and Friday the least cold. Tuesday night through Thursday morning the coldest. There are two synoptic signals (Jan 19-20 and Jan 21-22) moving through from W to E but are modeled well to the N of NJ as clippers with NJ under cold W/NW flow. Therefore, if anyone in NJ is going to see snow this week, it will likely be trace-to-light and isolated from lake effect streamers, squalls, or flurries. NNJ elevations would have the best chance having closest proximity to the low passages to the N. This goes for any day this week. The PV split-related cold has first plunged into the W US (-EPO/-PNA pattern) and will take a bit to propagate eastward into the E US. It will come in waves with the first “okay it’s pretty cold out there” this Tuesday-Thursday. Then another reinforcing cold shot for the weekend into next week. With that said, the W US is more subject to well-below average cold this week. The E US will gradually inherit a slightly moderated cold air mass but still near-to-below average for January…which is still cold. Of the remaining 14 or so days of January, I only see one or two 1-2 day periods of moderation where the flow isn’t out of W/NW or NW colder direction. Of all the synoptic signals moving through, January 25-26 (next Monday-Tuesday) looks to be the next signal capable of bringing snow to NJ. I’ll be tracking that but for now, cold and uneventful should be the theme of this week. Longer-range signals indicate more cold reloading to start February.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Jan 18) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most, maybe low-to-mid 40s for SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to near-30 from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (Jan 19) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for many areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should again range from upper-teens to near-30 from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Jan 20) high temperatures should struggle to break above freezing for at least the NWNJ elevations. The rest of the state should be held in the 30s. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-teens to lower-20s from elevations to sea, possibly colder if under clear skies and subsiding winds.

Thursday (Jan 21) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall just below or near-freezing for most areas.

Friday (Jan 22) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most, maybe low-to-mid 40s for SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s as more cold reinforces the region.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions. NNJ, especially elevations, might stay below freezing for the entire weekend. The rest of NJ might struggle to escape the 30s. Overnight lows down into the teens and 20s, possibly lower. Monday-Tuesday (Jan 25-26) is the next possibility of a snow event that I’m watching. The winter continues to progress with a supportive snowstorm pattern despite the lack of a favorable low pressure track.

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Jonathan Carr
By January 17, 2021 14:53