Colder Conditions (Oct 30-Nov 1)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 29, 2020 16:16

Colder Conditions (Oct 30-Nov 1)

Dan Mueller Financial Advisor

Discussion: Two dips in the jet (troughs) should push through NJ in the near future. One Friday and another Monday-Tuesday. Said days will therefore feel noticeably colder. Between the dips should be some moderation for Saturday and Sunday but still cooler temps overall. We’re only looking at a relaxation back to slightly above average 500mb height anomalies, not a strong or long-lasting ridge. Everything seems very progressive with transient transition (quick back-and-forth). Once the rain ends by noon on Friday, Friday night and Saturday look cold and clear. Clouds return Sunday via departing high return flow with periods of rain possible Sunday evening/overnight. The colder Monday-Tuesday trough will then push in with a hard cold front by Monday morning. Then yet another transient mild relaxation should occur for Wednesday-Thursday before returning back to a colder pattern Friday-forward.

Storm Update: As of now (Thursday PM) ZETA remnants have tracked across the interior SE US and are departing into the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures will now drop on the back side of the low but we might see a lull in precipitation for some of late-Thursday evening. Heavier rain should then return for overnight hours until about noon on Friday with the colder trailing low. NWNJ elevations are still subject to a possible snowy finish Friday morning but with little to no expected accumulations. I suppose the higher elevations of Sussex County (High Point NJ and immediate surrounding areas) could squeeze out a C-2 scenario. We’ll see. The rest of NWNJ elevations likely conversational rain to snow if any. Everyone S of I-80 and/or SE of I-287 should stay all rain until finish.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Oct 30) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should start mostly cloudy and rainy (snowy for NWNJ elevations) then transition to all rain for all areas once the day warms up (by noon). Skies should then improve for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to sea. Many areas of NJ will dip below freezing hence the freeze warning from the NWS. The immediate coast might stay near or just above freezing at the lowest point before sunrise Saturday morning.

Saturday (Oct 31) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s for most areas. Immediate coastal regions of ECNJ/SNJ should rise just above 50. Skies should be mostly sunny with a chilly feel. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to mid-40s from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Nov 1) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to lower-60s from elevations to sea (near-60 for most). Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates colder temps for Monday-Tuesday. Wednesday-Thursday looks milder but then back to cold/chilly for Friday into the weekend. The week does look dry and clear though. Let’s take another look on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 29, 2020 16:16