Colder Dry Start. Milder Wet Finish.

Discussion: We’re still dealing with a colder air mass that was pulled down behind Saturday morning’s system. The sun angle, however, is climbing daily and really starts to show its ugly face (to the snow lover) from now through the rest of winter. The air mass and sun angle are allowing for milder-feeling afternoons, especially in the sun, and cold nights. That should be the theme for the next few days. The Feb 22-24 winter storm signal is likely dead for NJ. The two branches of energy involved with the signal (polar and Pacific jet shortwaves) will likely not interact enough to produce snow for New Jersey. A more realistic expectation is southern stream impact only—a strung out rainy outcome. The two pieces of energy might go on to interact more for extreme NE US/Nova Scotia snow, but not for New Jersey. Instead, NJ temps will spike a little Thursday in the warm sector (temps break 50) leading to cold rain Thursday night through Friday. Once clear by Friday PM, temps will then fall for next weekend with a colder/drier air mass moving in behind the Friday system. I’m seeing a warm surge of temperatures by mid-next-week to close out February and take us into March. We’re talking highs pushing well into the 50s possibly 60s. In like a lamb?

Are we finished with snow? I won’t say that. It’s a foolish thing to say on Feb 19. I’d be much more confident saying something like that on the ides of March with nothing showing in the long-range pattern. But any snow we do see for the rest of winter will have to be a thread-the-needle event within an unsupportive snow pattern. The current supportive pattern (that led to two KABOOMS in a single week for NNJ) will end much shorter than it was originally expected to…with many SNJ people saying, “what supportive pattern?” SNJ is about 50-75% of their average seasonal snowfall right now just from a few nickel and dime events in January + the C-3” this past Saturday morning. NNJ is closer to near-average with a few spots above-average. There are some colder signals showing up later in March but climatology, sun angle during the day, and even longwave reflective radiation at night, will put up a war against snow accumulations especially on any paved surfaces. It has to snow “1993/2014/2017 BIG” to drop significant accumulations or greater across NJ in the second half of March.

Tuesday (Feb 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mostly sunny and clear. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from 17-32 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Feb 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s, maybe localized upper-40s approaching 50. Skies should feature more sun than clouds. Winds should remain light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to lower-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Feb 22) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should increase cloud coverage throughout the day. Isolated rain showers are possible with NNJ slightly favored for such over SNJ. Winds should become breezy at times out of the SE, especially along the coast. Overnight lows should hold in the 35-42 range as marine influence takes over and rain chances increase statewide.

Friday (Feb 23) high temperatures should reach the 45-50 range. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely. Winds should remain breezy and transition in-direction from SE to NE to N with the passing disturbance. Immediate coastal ECNJ/SENJ could become gusty at times but likely a 35mph max. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s as skies clear and ground dries.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions moving in behind Friday’s departing system. Saturday should struggle to escape the 30s for highs with overnight lows in the teens. Let’s allow a small chance of lake-effect flurries/streamers Saturday. Sunday not as cold as Saturday but still a colder feel. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™