Colder Week. Stormy Weekend.

Discussion: This week is fairly straightforward as a trough swings through the Mid-Atlantic US and holds New Jersey under a colder air mass. The week looks mostly dry with breezy W/NW winds. A few chances for light precip, mainly in the Wed-Thurs period but should occur overnight with minimal disruption. Maybe some snow showers for NNJ/NWNJ but nothing of significance. High temps this week should push to the 40s/50s while overnight lows fall below freezing for much of the state a few nights. We then arrive at an unsettled weekend. The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. GFS has mixed wintry precip (snow/sleet) falling Friday evening into early Saturday with a quicker clear-out of the overall synoptic system by Sunday. That would produce a colder Sunday but warm next week. The Euro has a later-arriving system (Saturday) but the impacts linger through Tuesday as the southern stream low stalls and gets caught off the Central Mid-Atlantic US. I am hoping the Euro leans away from this as coastal flooding issues could become problematic by early next week. Not going to mention “thee” event of the past but that’s what they saw. Once that clears out (by ~March 24) I think we’re finished with any other snow possibilities. As I’ve been saying, the ~March 24 marker is our last out of the ballgame. We might have a few runners on the bases though…so it could be interesting. New Jersey should then expect milder spring conditions to build by later next week, if not by Monday (like the GFS).

Monday (March 18) high temperatures are currently, as of Monday afternoon, ranging 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds with light-to-breezy W/NW winds. Overnight lows should fall to upper-20s/30s for most NJ locations.

Tuesday (March 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 32-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as clouds increase.

Wednesday (March 20) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out some light rain showers for afternoon-evening hours. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 25-35 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts which could produce light snow showers into Thursday morning mainly for NNJ.

Thursday (March 21) high temperatures should range from 40-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows range from about 20-32 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts under clear skies.

Friday (March 22) high temperatures should range from 45-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should gradually transition from sun to clouds throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates an unsettled look and feel. A synoptic storm signal is showing which means a good chance of at least rain and some wind. The jury is still out on whether or not NNJ/NWNJ can cash in on some mixed wintry precipitation (snow/sleet) Friday night. I’ll be watching closely this week and will report accordingly. Conditions should remain unsettled at least through Sunday, possibly into early next week. Have a great rest of this week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™