Conditions Improve Drastically

Discussion: Erin is steaming away from the E US towards the N Atlantic/European region. Gone are any shower or coastal flooding concerns. Beach erosion seems minor but won’t be measured until Saturday evening and that’s because some dangerous rip currents and larger waves will be around until then. With that said, today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) will be the last days for swimming concerns along the beaches. I recommend respecting lifeguards and local authorities before entering the ocean at any point this weekend. Sunday seems the safest day to swim, Saturday questionable, but likely not today. A tropical system like Erin can change/disrupt entire synoptic regions. It can hurl warm and humid air northward ahead of it and it can rip down cool and dry air behind it. And that’s exactly what Erin’s departing cyclonic influence is doing for today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) with beautiful blue sky and low humidity. A small ridge will then build for Saturday night into Sunday followed by a trough moving in out of Canada and the lakes for Sunday into Monday. That will allow for warmer temperatures (80-85) and elevated humidity with shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday PM into Monday AM. A cold front should then push through Monday night into Tuesday and return NJ back to low humidity and pleasant conditions Tuesday into Labor Day Weekend. So the spike in humidity will be transient Sunday into Monday between two periods of immaculate weather conditions for this time of year. As I said in yesterday’s article, summer is slipping away. Not seeing any 90+ days for the rest of the school break period. Whether or not some 90+ days return before the end of calendar summer or even into early October is yet to be determined, but certainly not before Labor Day. I will continue to monitor anything sparks up in the tropics but for now no foreseeable threats. Enjoy the next week+ of amazing weather, outside of the Sunday-Monday humidity and isolated Shower/thunderstorm chances.

Forecast

Friday (Aug 22) high temperatures should reach the 80-85 range for most NJ locations…upper-70s along coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant low-humidity feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N in general with coastal areas seeing the breeziest conditions. Recommend staying out of the ocean due to larger waves and dangerous rip currents still around from Erin’s departure. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ with clear skies…great for sky observations.

Saturday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the 80-85 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a continued pleasant look and feel. Winds should be light out of the S. Likely the last day for ocean swimming concerns. Monitor local authorities and lifeguards for specific status. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-65 range as humidity begins to creep in by Sunday morning.

Sunday (Aug 24) high temperatures should reach the 80-85 range again…maybe just mid-to-upper 70s for coastal regions. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a more noticeable humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for PM hours starting in the afternoon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE, breeziest along the coast. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations with a few thunderstorms around into Monday morning.

An early look at next week (Aug 25-29) indicates Monday being one more day for a humid feel with thunderstorm chances, mostly AM hours. Monday night should start improvement. The humidity should be confided to Sunday and Monday only. Tuesday should start a beautiful stretch of conditions leading right into Labor Day Weekend. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC