Conditions to Improve (Oct 3-7)

After a prolonged period of unsettled and dreary conditions, we’re finally going to clear out. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: A closed-off upper-level low has been dominating the pattern since last week. This upper-level low parked over the Ohio Valley and provided moisture transport to our area while pulling winds off the ocean. It will now break down and move away to the E as high pressure builds behind. While tremendous uncertainty exists regarding Matthew later this weekend, conditions look much better this week heading in.

Monday (Oct 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should start mostly cloudy but we should see the sun break through eventually. Winds should be light and generally out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide as skies continue to clear.

Tuesday (Oct 4) high temperatures should reach about 70 statewide. NNJ elevations and immediate coastal regions might be held in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies could start out foggy in the morning but eventually clear to partly sunny skies. Winds should be light out of the ENE for most (a little breezier along the immediate coast). Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide.

Wednesday (Oct 5) high temperatures should again reach about 70 statewide. NNJ elevations and immediate coastal regions might be held in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies could start out foggy in the morning but eventually clear to partly sunny skies. Winds should be light out of the ENE for most (a little breezier along the immediate coast). Overnight lows should fall into the lower-40s for NNJ elevations. The rest of New Jersey should hold in the upper-40s/lower-50s.

Thursday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide after any AM fog bakes off. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/SE ( a little breezier along the coast). Overnight lows should range from upper-40s for NNJ elevations to lower-60s along the immediate SENJ coast.

Friday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the SE for most with the immediate coast subject to a stronger easterly breeze/wind. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with immediate coastal areas likely hanging in the lower-60s.

An early look at the weekend indicates more cooler conditions but Hurricane Matthew will completely dictate the pattern. If Matthew tracks closer to us then we’re obviously subject to rain, wind and coastal flooding. If Matthew tracks further offshore then impacts could be little-to-none. I’ll be aggressively tracking Matthew this week and will have another update out this evening with a video.

I took the above photo earlier this year on Great Bay Blvd (Seven Bridges Road) in Little Egg Harbor, NJ. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™