Cool and Calm but Winter is Coming (Dec 1-3)

Discussion: Conditions should be rather uneventful through about Tuesday. Highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s with little to no precipitation. A strong cold front should then move through in the Tuesday night-Wednesday AM period and usher in our first blast of winter temperatures. They say tail-end flurries are an old wives tale but who knows given the strength of this cold front. I would think areas N and W of the turnpike have a better chance to see such than the SENJ coastal plain. You might even see convective precipitation along the frontal passage. At least a period of  frontal rain is expected with warm temps to start and cold temps to finish. Wednesday should be a day of transition as the front fully exists. Wednesday night and forward then looks cold. Highs struggling to reach the lower-40s and overnight lows falling into the teens/20s, possibly single-digits for NNJ elevations. The upper levels should feature well-below average height anomalies which tells me the air is going to be very cold up there. There are a few winter storm signals in the Dec 8-16 period that I’m closely monitoring. Personally I like the Dec 12-16 period (stronger chances) better than the Dec 8-12 period (weaker chances). Either way it will feel wintry so change your heating filters and break out the cold weather clothes/gear.

Friday (Dec 1) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s NWNJ to SENJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NWNJ to SENJ.

Saturday (Dec 2) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NWNJ to SENJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NWNJ to SENJ.

Sunday (Dec 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the mid-to-upper 20s.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same for Monday, a wet and transitional Tuesday-Wednesday followed by winter’s first blast of cold temperatures Wednesday night-forward. As mentioned in technical discussion above, I’m watching the general Dec 8-16 period for wintry event potential. I might make a video this weekend if I still like what I see come Sunday. It is still early so important to not jump the gun this early in winter. I cannot however ignore the favorable pattern for synoptic development. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™