Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 2, 2020 22:49

Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Discussion: The upper pattern looks very meridional in foreseeable model guidance. While nothing specific is currently showing, I’d be surprised if a synoptic scale system didn’t materialize for the Mid-Atlantic US, whether just a baby coastal low or stronger nor’easter. Spidey sense in my gut is buzzing. But for this weekend we’ll be cool and clear with areas of high pressure dominating the region with dry sinking air. Saturday and Saturday night look colder and clearer with W/NW flow. Sunday not as cold and with mixed clouds as light onshore flow is expected. Given how cold Saturday PM-Sunday AM could get from additional factors like radiational cooling, and how flow will start coming off the warm ocean for Sunday, I would not be surprised to see dense fog along ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions between about 3-6AM. It’s not guaranteed or modeled but kind of makes sense meteorologically and atmospherically. If such were to happen it would quickly lift as temps warm by mid-to-late morning. Next week we’ll continue to warm through about Wednesday before another cold front returns us to the cooler pattern. Thursday into Friday should be an even colder hit that we’re seeing right now.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Saturday (Oct 3) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should drop into the 30s for NNJ elevations and traditionally colder spots (like the SNJ Pine Barrens). The rest of the state should drop into the 40s with immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions closer to 50.

Sunday (Oct 4) high temperatures should again top out in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out some AM fog given the warmer ocean air mass creeping into colder/drier land air mass. Should quickly lift though. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions Monday-Wednesday (highs in the 70s) then back to the cooler pattern for Thursday into the weekend. Not seeing much rain at all aside from the cold frontal passage Wednesday night. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 2, 2020 22:49