Cool Pattern Establishing

Discussion: All signs are continuing to point towards below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall for the close of April into the first third of May. Today (Monday) and tomorrow should be the mildest days for a while, possibly until May 10-15. A prolonged lower heights pattern with several swinging troughs begins this Wednesday and stretches through at least next week. This will bring colder air aloft downwards and closer to the surface. However, the strong May sun angle will fight hard in the interest of climatology. When you have strong solar surface heating (diurnal heating) under colder air aloft, it produces an unsettled recipe for showers to form more easily…than say a hot capped environment. So during this colder stretch into May, I expect abundant passing spring showers…isolated by abundant. Not seeing any large synoptic rainmakers but the showers should continue to provide relief to our dry grounds. Rain relief began with this past Sat-Sun, will continue this Wed-Thurs and then again with next week’s showers. Historically, May can range from hot and humid (80+) to cool and dry. The expected below-average temps could go one of two ways depending on the amplitude of the troughs. If flatter and weaker then maybe NJ sees high temp ranges of 65-72. If the troughs are deeper and stronger, then NJ could be capped for highs in the 55-65 range. This is yet TBD but in either cast it will likely be below-average. While frustrating to the warm weather lover, it’s great “get stuff done outside” conditions.

Forecast

Monday (April 27) high temperatures should reach 70 or just over for many NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal regions should hang in the 60s in general and in some cases 50s along the immediate coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/EN. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations.

Tuesday (April 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s away from the ocean (maybe someone sees 70 in SWNJ) and closer to 60 along the ocean. Skies should turn mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations.

Wednesday (April 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s away from the ocean and just mid-50s along the ocean. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible, likely holding off until at least afternoon. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s as rain chances continue into Thursday morning.

Thursday (April 30) high temperatures should range from upper-50s in NNJ elevations to Mid-60s along the SENJ coast. Let’s allow until noon for overnight/morning rain to taper off with improvement for all NJ areas afterwards. SNJ should clear out earlier than NNJ. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range NNJ to SNJ with some NNJ elevations likely dipping into the mid-to-upper 30s.

Friday (May 1) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations, maybe just mid-to-upper 50s for NNJ elevations. Skies should be mixed…more sun than clouds in the morning and more clouds than sun heading into sunset. Winds should remain breezy out of the W/NW for the morning and then subside out of the W in the afternoon. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (May 2-3) indicates mid-50s Saturday and near-60 Sunday with sunny and dry but possibly breezy conditions. The cool wetter pattern will continue to build in with no synoptic rainstorms currently showing…but decent chances for passing spring showers all next week. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC